{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc5cd577-e360-436d-98ef-a963160c287a", "symbol": "IP", "name": "Interpump Group S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 88.054, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.57, "architecture_energy": 13.216, "architecture_maturity": 23.968, "architecture_confidence": 61.057, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.59, "rotation_up": 37.82, "upward_expansion": 31.78, "deceleration": 46.39, "rotation_down": 20.97, "downward_expansion": 44.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.881333, 35.271273, 35.165602, 35.461827 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 38.18, "trend_reference": 37.074183, "distance_from_trend": 0.029827, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.649275, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.037057, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.124316, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.219019, "excess_performance": -0.389911, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029827, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077706, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.037057, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086307, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171243, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026651, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219019, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.799793, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2074284, "relative_activity": 2.117812, "balance": 1.799793, "dry_up": 1.187208, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063392, "annualized_volatility": 0.451773, "from_high_reference": -0.247944, "from_low_reference": 0.281743 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.074183, "fair_value_reference": 39.649275, "structural_low": 29.787574, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.012315, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01645, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.161272, "worst_return": -0.150719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.0179, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.060654, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.316321, "worst_return": -0.280935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.085499, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.099315, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.362361, "worst_return": -0.320469, "sufficient": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03401, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174752, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010453, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006883, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", 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35.831978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.32, "volume": 683458, "typical_volume": 1026291.35, "trend": 37.727757, "fair_value": 39.757954, "relative_strength": -23.530048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.464257, "energy": 27.676349, "activity_lines": [ 34.474667, 34.608364, 34.809584, 35.588117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.959999, "volume": 631178, "typical_volume": 982422.85, "trend": 37.369735, "fair_value": 39.686837, "relative_strength": -22.294963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.560471, "energy": 20.06782, "activity_lines": [ 34.669334, 34.648, 34.840449, 35.409552 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.18, "volume": 2074284, "typical_volume": 979446.5, "trend": 37.074183, "fair_value": 39.649275, "relative_strength": -17.124316, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.569602, "energy": 13.215983, "activity_lines": [ 35.881333, 35.271273, 35.165602, 35.461827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }