{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc5d024e-a385-489b-8b3e-631da5fb35e5", "symbol": "DRCSYSTEMS", "name": "DRC Systems India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.238, "architecture_energy": 67.027, "architecture_maturity": 20.225, "architecture_confidence": 87.639, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.43, "rotation_up": 13.54, "upward_expansion": 14.71, "deceleration": 38.56, "rotation_down": 71.79, "downward_expansion": 92.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.354, 13.631818, 14.202286, 14.442473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 13.32, "trend_reference": 14.846333, "distance_from_trend": -0.102809, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.839017, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.328596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.657303, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.244898, "excess_performance": -0.201189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102809, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078116, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.328596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095334, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07341, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.244898, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.11875, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 318561, "relative_activity": 1.190585, "balance": 1.11875, "dry_up": 0.925052, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06416, "annualized_volatility": 0.329363, "from_high_reference": -0.4375, "from_low_reference": 0.158261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.846333, "fair_value_reference": 19.839017, "structural_low": 11.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.008403, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.035008, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.442068, "worst_return": -0.210227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.060809, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043057, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.221591, "worst_return": -0.200889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.176596, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.079556, "worst_return": -0.331724, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.289625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.257375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.102603, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072763, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09536, "active": 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"direction": -65.607287, "energy": 61.348188, "activity_lines": [ 13.878667, 14.156727, 14.580857, 14.79314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.41, "volume": 295407, "typical_volume": 272773.95, "trend": 15.101, "fair_value": 19.83812, "relative_strength": -16.179078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.544361, "energy": 63.576637, "activity_lines": [ 13.684, 13.968909, 14.465429, 14.676323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.12, "volume": 154916, "typical_volume": 267802.5, "trend": 14.963667, "fair_value": 19.84156, "relative_strength": -19.669574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.653506, "energy": 70.435684, "activity_lines": [ 13.449333, 13.762, 14.324429, 14.548516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.32, "volume": 318561, "typical_volume": 267566.75, "trend": 14.846333, "fair_value": 19.839017, "relative_strength": -18.657303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.238183, "energy": 67.027062, "activity_lines": [ 13.354, 13.631818, 14.202286, 14.442473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }