{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc5e8b9b-9c72-4ffd-98cd-b4ac6cc2671a", "symbol": "GPRO", "name": "GoPro Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.54, "architecture_energy": 51.846, "architecture_maturity": 31.734, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.83, "rotation_up": 20.03, "upward_expansion": 10.43, "deceleration": 41.58, "rotation_down": 51.88, "downward_expansion": 81.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.71422, 0.726247, 0.864107, 0.892577 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.7258, "trend_reference": 0.943673, "distance_from_trend": -0.230878, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.598317, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.545897, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.404211, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2742, "excess_performance": -0.461654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.230878, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229828, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.545897, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.278315, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.514042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.396792, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2742, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.473958, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21849795, "relative_activity": 0.643511, "balance": 0.473958, "dry_up": 0.619928, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.250949, "annualized_volatility": 1.297645, "from_high_reference": -0.762033, "from_low_reference": 0.231004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.943673, "fair_value_reference": 1.598317, "structural_low": 0.5896, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.057412, "positive_rate": 0.369565, "directional_follow_through": 0.630435, "median_excess_return": -0.042202, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.784551, "worst_return": -0.305104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.033183, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.071003, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.676801, "worst_return": -0.316456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.259339, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.312897, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 2.317398, "worst_return": -0.480977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.310734, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.184882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.205298, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.397163, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045752, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6685, "volume": 23336852, "typical_volume": 34176354.2, "trend": 0.991847, "fair_value": 1.637998, "relative_strength": -53.797347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.177035, "energy": 55.090565, "activity_lines": [ 0.69734, 0.75416, 0.901034, 0.92388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.749, "volume": 16763752, "typical_volume": 33742871.2, "trend": 0.968147, "fair_value": 1.618985, "relative_strength": -48.003128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.638472, "energy": 49.436554, "activity_lines": [ 0.70964, 0.740031, 0.883734, 0.908212 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7258, "volume": 21849795, "typical_volume": 33954056.45, "trend": 0.943673, "fair_value": 1.598317, "relative_strength": -51.404211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.539943, "energy": 51.845792, "activity_lines": [ 0.71422, 0.726247, 0.864107, 0.892577 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }