{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc60ce46-f51f-4e32-a726-d368a9e79fa5", "symbol": "STHLM", "name": "Stockholm Treasury AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.305, "architecture_energy": 11.863, "architecture_maturity": 22.245, "architecture_confidence": 64.644, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.02, "rotation_up": 36.47, "upward_expansion": 29.38, "deceleration": 41.04, "rotation_down": 18.77, "downward_expansion": 44.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.2556, 0.242691, 0.240257, 0.252598 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.246, "trend_reference": 0.270833, "distance_from_trend": -0.091692, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.955026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.742415, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.484832, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.236025, "excess_performance": -0.297519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091692, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249838, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.742415, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038328, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.494848, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075035, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236025, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.822808, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 190264, "relative_activity": 1.177871, "balance": 0.822808, "dry_up": 1.113501, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.247342, "annualized_volatility": 1.116938, "from_high_reference": -0.745078, "from_low_reference": 1.196429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.270833, "fair_value_reference": 0.955026, "structural_low": 0.126, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.005684, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003891, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.348066, "worst_return": -0.437888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.032051, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.03813, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.028571, "worst_return": -0.242424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.073564, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044444, "worst_return": -0.238889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.238889, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.378599, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.165385, "worst_return": -0.60303, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.503106, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245455, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.6125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.278571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072368, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019737, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.414729, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118919, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.229814, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.18797, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.437888, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.405405, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046512, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.86, "volume": 4489, "typical_volume": 32168.85, "trend": 1.879933, "fair_value": 2.205003, "relative_strength": 2.200445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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"fair_value": 2.177166, "relative_strength": -2.73033, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.978447, "energy": 25.659078, "activity_lines": [ 1.763333, 1.777818, 1.786857, 1.808752 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 1.7, "volume": 7587, "typical_volume": 17983.8, "trend": 1.825794, "fair_value": 2.171505, "relative_strength": -4.511243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.26695, "energy": 32.397045, "activity_lines": [ 1.743333, 1.762727, 1.776429, 1.800104 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 1.6, "volume": 25885, "typical_volume": 18624.5, "trend": 1.816865, "fair_value": 2.166985, "relative_strength": -11.130544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.819314, "energy": 56.340704, "activity_lines": [ 1.692667, 1.731091, 1.758381, 1.785537 ] }, { 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0.974359, "relative_strength": -46.313197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.705838, "energy": 20.131604, "activity_lines": [ 0.254933, 0.231491, 0.241476, 0.255415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.258, "volume": 174580, "typical_volume": 158475.35, "trend": 0.271967, "fair_value": 0.964731, "relative_strength": -46.839285, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.139802, "energy": 19.504195, "activity_lines": [ 0.26, 0.238709, 0.24129, 0.254273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.246, "volume": 190264, "typical_volume": 161532.15, "trend": 0.270833, "fair_value": 0.955026, "relative_strength": -49.484832, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.304601, "energy": 11.862615, "activity_lines": [ 0.2556, 0.242691, 0.240257, 0.252598 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }