{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc66c04f-1dec-4998-9d6b-7939447f4353", "symbol": "002048", "name": "Ningbo Huaxiang Electronic Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.41, "architecture_energy": 81.988, "architecture_maturity": 60.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.065, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 8.7, "upward_expansion": 19.92, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 75.76, "downward_expansion": 93.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.085333, 21.037818, 23.560166, 24.907583 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.4, "trend_reference": 26.897898, "distance_from_trend": -0.278754, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.137038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069634, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.303838, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.407218, "excess_performance": -0.414618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.278754, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071789, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069634, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.687294, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.333038, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283907, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.407218, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.767901, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86560262, "relative_activity": 1.028024, "balance": 0.767901, "dry_up": 1.175736, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161577, "annualized_volatility": 0.640429, "from_high_reference": -0.517598, "from_low_reference": 0.110475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.897898, "fair_value_reference": 18.137038, "structural_low": 17.469999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.016204, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.009934, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.126683, "worst_return": -0.284922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037624, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.005807, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.100554, "worst_return": -0.241897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.076696, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.047528, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.101346, "worst_return": -0.209131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 18.051342, "relative_strength": -37.957366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.020876, "energy": 80.857871, "activity_lines": [ 20.570667, 22.767945, 24.783978, 25.988109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.76, "volume": 92415773, "typical_volume": 82936990.35, "trend": 27.289966, "fair_value": 18.090897, "relative_strength": -32.316542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.243798, "energy": 82.266516, "activity_lines": [ 19.61, 21.746182, 24.117397, 25.416613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.4, "volume": 86560262, "typical_volume": 84200595.85, "trend": 26.897898, "fair_value": 18.137038, "relative_strength": -33.303838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.409927, "energy": 81.987975, "activity_lines": [ 19.085333, 21.037818, 23.560166, 24.907583 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }