{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc6edd35-9731-4914-91d6-4963d8d82068", "symbol": "NVON", "name": "Novo Nordisk A/S", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.989, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 19.527, "architecture_energy": 25.646, "architecture_maturity": 38.902, "architecture_confidence": 45.091, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.12, "rotation_up": 38.18, "upward_expansion": 38.36, "deceleration": 43.23, "rotation_down": 31.73, "downward_expansion": 22.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 832.818665, 834.771634, 806.995918, 786.02866 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 809.700012, "trend_reference": 793.744735, "distance_from_trend": 0.020101, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1550.858513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.477902, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.413343, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010719, "excess_performance": 0.043948, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020101, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034876, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.477902, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026311, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094133, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190891, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010719, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.331461, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51357, "relative_activity": 2.122611, "balance": 0.331461, "dry_up": 1.159052, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056004, "annualized_volatility": 0.436165, "from_high_reference": -0.288412, "from_low_reference": 0.27149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 793.744735, "fair_value_reference": 1550.858513, "structural_low": 636.811795, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.089937, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.126807, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.186563, "worst_return": -0.379992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0776, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.156816, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195022, "worst_return": -0.281553, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.113302, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.168841, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.342808, "worst_return": -0.21755, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 849.237993, 836.524905, 802.784566, 785.536906 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 809.700012, "volume": 51357, "typical_volume": 24195.2, "trend": 793.744735, "fair_value": 1550.858513, "relative_strength": -9.413343, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.527066, "energy": 25.645997, "activity_lines": [ 832.818665, 834.771634, 806.995918, 786.02866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }