{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc70430e-876a-46ca-988f-f08a514480b0", "symbol": "8010", "name": "The Company for Cooperative Insurance", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.911, "architecture_energy": 25.306, "architecture_maturity": 52.488, "architecture_confidence": 68.218, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.78, "rotation_up": 14.24, "upward_expansion": 15.17, "deceleration": 72.17, "rotation_down": 56.56, "downward_expansion": 37.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 134.513332, 139.50883, 139.897724, 138.17856 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 137.899994, "trend_reference": 136.074027, "distance_from_trend": 0.013419, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 136.186443, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012582, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.363879, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006569, "excess_performance": 0.038399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013419, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055941, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012582, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037549, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.063639, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00501, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006569, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.416319, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1921900, "relative_activity": 1.503207, "balance": 1.416319, "dry_up": 1.019773, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067259, "annualized_volatility": 0.351035, "from_high_reference": -0.135111, "from_low_reference": 0.233453 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 136.074027, "fair_value_reference": 136.186443, "structural_low": 122.599998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000794, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024595, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.14625, "worst_return": -0.105882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016554, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.012136, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.254967, "worst_return": -0.134956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082324, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037928, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.56533, "worst_return": -0.214602, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.13198, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075949, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088729, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097378, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148365, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005682, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053795, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111253, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017236, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017106, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 111.40509, "volume": 1757834, "typical_volume": 394337.7, "trend": 89.812714, "fair_value": 68.618644, "relative_strength": 39.027969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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138.191858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 137.300003, "volume": 829024, "typical_volume": 1251049.8, "trend": 134.347361, "fair_value": 136.054291, "relative_strength": 7.104256, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.509626, "energy": 19.568678, "activity_lines": [ 143.238916, 145.131601, 140.964213, 138.430308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 140.300003, "volume": 731434, "typical_volume": 1191772.15, "trend": 135.104028, "fair_value": 136.152476, "relative_strength": 8.618341, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.201843, "energy": 24.820467, "activity_lines": [ 141.144177, 144.457923, 141.269352, 138.814349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 122.599998, "volume": 1732896, "typical_volume": 1199968.55, "trend": 135.250694, "fair_value": 136.113081, "relative_strength": -3.070801, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.570124, "energy": 32.467408, "activity_lines": [ 134.346668, 140.469217, 139.84211, 138.007638 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 137.899994, "volume": 1921900, "typical_volume": 1278533.55, "trend": 136.074027, "fair_value": 136.186443, "relative_strength": 6.363879, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.911148, "energy": 25.305888, "activity_lines": [ 134.513332, 139.50883, 139.897724, 138.17856 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }