{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc732907-1be5-423d-96c0-0731902c6a22", "symbol": "000989", "name": "Jiuzhitang Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.429, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.238, "architecture_energy": 37.206, "architecture_maturity": 20.948, "architecture_confidence": 84.681, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.95, "rotation_up": 69.53, "upward_expansion": 43.3, "deceleration": 37.6, "rotation_down": 14.2, "downward_expansion": 15.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.071333, 8.689636, 8.598263, 8.652838 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.48, "trend_reference": 8.696642, "distance_from_trend": 0.090076, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.398526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.12877, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.627733, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110264, "excess_performance": 0.102864, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090076, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026666, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.12877, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046498, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006277, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19577, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110264, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.548594, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 182319440, "relative_activity": 1.738698, "balance": 1.548594, "dry_up": 2.592664, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068561, "annualized_volatility": 0.305841, "from_high_reference": -0.242651, "from_low_reference": 0.252312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.696642, "fair_value_reference": 8.398526, "structural_low": 7.57, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.019007, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.016461, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.246604, "worst_return": -0.040704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.017223, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.003202, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.373247, "worst_return": -0.093563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.117268, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.197554, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.417595, "worst_return": 0.099441, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.195781, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093578, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021407, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046418, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012959, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", 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"relative_strength": -22.118998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.953886, "energy": 42.599954, "activity_lines": [ 8.037333, 8.067838, 8.431802, 8.542499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.03, "volume": 479854929, "typical_volume": 81853816.85, "trend": 8.648259, "fair_value": 8.436695, "relative_strength": -4.309939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.041961, "energy": 12.38029, "activity_lines": [ 8.385333, 8.213818, 8.471128, 8.567601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.75, "volume": 250462410, "typical_volume": 92313899.55, "trend": 8.648209, "fair_value": 8.422036, "relative_strength": -6.592777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.634861, "energy": 20.282919, "activity_lines": [ 8.57, 8.315091, 8.482322, 8.574165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.05, "volume": 174827310, "typical_volume": 98355552.25, "trend": 8.662355, "fair_value": 8.409073, "relative_strength": -1.05374, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.017299, "energy": 22.684742, "activity_lines": [ 8.798, 8.471636, 8.520481, 8.600087 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.48, "volume": 182319440, "typical_volume": 104859733.55, "trend": 8.696642, "fair_value": 8.398526, "relative_strength": -0.627733, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.238466, "energy": 37.205682, "activity_lines": [ 9.071333, 8.689636, 8.598263, 8.652838 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }