{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc73daf8-63e1-4ae4-a5a2-59117fe64ce9", "symbol": "603956", "name": "WPG (Shanghai) Smart Water Public Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 74.692, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.015, "architecture_energy": 46.087, "architecture_maturity": 13.413, "architecture_confidence": 80.585, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.89, "rotation_up": 67.15, "upward_expansion": 52.46, "deceleration": 17.54, "rotation_down": 18.16, "downward_expansion": 25.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.44, 6.109273, 5.875667, 5.900258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.92, "trend_reference": 6.056, "distance_from_trend": 0.142668, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.451673, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07259, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.981938, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.050076, "excess_performance": 0.09328, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.142668, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040558, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07259, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174341, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.099819, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.277897, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050076, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.641072, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 279477092, "relative_activity": 3.675205, "balance": 1.641072, "dry_up": 2.031635, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107492, "annualized_volatility": 0.50084, "from_high_reference": -0.108247, "from_low_reference": 0.537778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.056, "fair_value_reference": 6.451673, "structural_low": 4.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.059116, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.047987, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.194296, "worst_return": -0.240299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.138747, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.127523, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.509804, "worst_return": -0.218961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.224181, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.206368, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188948, "worst_return": -0.373199, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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5.842516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.95, "volume": 144519265, "typical_volume": 55424695.45, "trend": 6.063, "fair_value": 6.487766, "relative_strength": -8.239076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.683483, "energy": 17.969177, "activity_lines": [ 5.772667, 5.610182, 5.652476, 5.833871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.38, "volume": 85180443, "typical_volume": 57817746.0, "trend": 6.034, "fair_value": 6.471996, "relative_strength": -11.264623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.0592, "energy": 24.534859, "activity_lines": [ 5.729333, 5.567636, 5.616143, 5.789806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.31, "volume": 97068539, "typical_volume": 58319908.35, "trend": 6.033333, "fair_value": 6.463006, "relative_strength": 3.1419, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.449155, "energy": 15.55413, "activity_lines": [ 5.943333, 5.704364, 5.675238, 5.807613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.59, "volume": 156248055, "typical_volume": 64080369.4, "trend": 6.040667, "fair_value": 6.455496, "relative_strength": 7.487214, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.036271, "energy": 27.823892, "activity_lines": [ 6.162, 5.882727, 5.760857, 5.843527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.92, "volume": 279477092, "typical_volume": 76043941.1, "trend": 6.056, "fair_value": 6.451673, "relative_strength": 9.981938, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.015122, "energy": 46.087286, "activity_lines": [ 6.44, 6.109273, 5.875667, 5.900258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }