{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc7a1ad2-071e-4d4d-ac46-7cbf33c4acaf", "symbol": "GLMD", "name": "Galmed Pharmaceuticals Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.245, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.111, "architecture_energy": 18.057, "architecture_maturity": 16.828, "architecture_confidence": 72.248, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.3, "rotation_up": 21.34, "upward_expansion": 14.12, "deceleration": 57.38, "rotation_down": 43.28, "downward_expansion": 64.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.578933, 0.576336, 0.598378, 0.606373 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.6019, "trend_reference": 0.62577, "distance_from_trend": -0.038145, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.854053, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.789107, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.80554, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.093388, "excess_performance": -0.280841, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038145, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164292, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.789107, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102713, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.408055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152261, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093388, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.094819, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 176542, "relative_activity": 0.015015, "balance": 0.094819, "dry_up": 0.408557, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.212257, "annualized_volatility": 0.858153, "from_high_reference": -0.635212, "from_low_reference": 0.464121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.62577, "fair_value_reference": 2.854053, "structural_low": 0.4111, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.060673, "positive_rate": 0.387755, "directional_follow_through": 0.612245, "median_excess_return": -0.074203, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 1.594628, "worst_return": -0.627056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.203943, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.171536, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 1.148477, "worst_return": -0.83914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.35, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.459045, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.322533, "worst_return": -0.91858, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.147193, "energy": 45.105825, "activity_lines": [ 0.560513, 0.589485, 0.607502, 0.61862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5129, "volume": 818604, "typical_volume": 11572238.7, "trend": 0.640203, "fair_value": 2.991753, "relative_strength": -49.203242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.635222, "energy": 48.911102, "activity_lines": [ 0.542827, 0.572349, 0.597722, 0.609649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.621, "volume": 3635473, "typical_volume": 11751142.9, "trend": 0.633473, "fair_value": 2.914964, "relative_strength": -37.275235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.30806, "energy": 28.973217, "activity_lines": [ 0.565647, 0.576451, 0.598938, 0.60841 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6019, "volume": 176542, "typical_volume": 11757414.2, "trend": 0.62577, "fair_value": 2.854053, "relative_strength": -40.80554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.111349, "energy": 18.057059, "activity_lines": [ 0.578933, 0.576336, 0.598378, 0.606373 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }