{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc7b4ab5-76a7-4d2c-b718-8a86ff50aa31", "symbol": "BCG", "name": "Baltic Classifieds Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.961, "architecture_energy": 21.603, "architecture_maturity": 11.864, "architecture_confidence": 44.901, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.24, "rotation_up": 53.18, "upward_expansion": 36.64, "deceleration": 38.9, "rotation_down": 21.18, "downward_expansion": 18.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 194.633333, 189.574545, 189.288095, 189.368171 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 205.0, "trend_reference": 190.449999, "distance_from_trend": 0.076398, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 260.151408, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.211997, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.511442, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.08811, "excess_performance": 0.036875, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076398, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04281, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.211997, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035571, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165114, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1588, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08811, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.024888, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8628004, "relative_activity": 1.064091, "balance": 1.024888, "dry_up": 1.138847, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072182, "annualized_volatility": 0.331732, "from_high_reference": -0.432846, "from_low_reference": 0.22031 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 190.449999, "fair_value_reference": 260.151408, "structural_low": 169.399994, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.0032, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.022424, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.102351, "worst_return": -0.091646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031335, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025867, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1968, "worst_return": 0.007595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.175111, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.166146, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.313352, "worst_return": 0.036871, "sufficient": false 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188.361904, 189.578709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 182.1, "volume": 14743359, "typical_volume": 8026143.45, "trend": 191.583332, "fair_value": 260.361245, "relative_strength": -28.347731, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.225855, "energy": 36.757368, "activity_lines": [ 181.933333, 184.36, 187.720952, 188.940429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 180.7, "volume": 9603638, "typical_volume": 7942678.45, "trend": 190.889999, "fair_value": 260.250767, "relative_strength": -28.167725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.647373, "energy": 44.646805, "activity_lines": [ 180.926667, 183.349091, 186.974761, 188.238279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 185.0, "volume": 10281818, "typical_volume": 8014931.2, "trend": 190.373332, "fair_value": 260.179388, "relative_strength": -26.016022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.961423, "energy": 40.305837, "activity_lines": [ 181.726667, 183.387273, 186.660476, 187.858279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 199.0, "volume": 8423167, "typical_volume": 8142841.25, "trend": 190.223332, "fair_value": 260.173402, "relative_strength": -19.992426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.406712, "energy": 8.197636, "activity_lines": [ 187.62, 186.043636, 187.709047, 188.414838 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 205.0, "volume": 8628004, "typical_volume": 8108335.65, "trend": 190.449999, "fair_value": 260.151408, "relative_strength": -16.511442, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.961119, "energy": 21.603219, "activity_lines": [ 194.633333, 189.574545, 189.288095, 189.368171 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }