{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc80e93c-33bf-4711-a197-4a16c8e56191", "symbol": "MWD", "name": "Morgan Stanley", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.386, "architecture_energy": 40.348, "architecture_maturity": 67.534, "architecture_confidence": 82.636, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.85, "rotation_up": 33.38, "upward_expansion": 64.86, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 27.71, "downward_expansion": 19.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 186.555921, 187.762234, 182.195758, 173.784886 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 186.0, "trend_reference": 164.357989, "distance_from_trend": 0.131676, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 112.779382, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.649238, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.044338, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.232262, "excess_performance": 0.058015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131676, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093178, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.649238, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068677, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000443, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024243, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.232262, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.913793, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.913793, "dry_up": 1.992188, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045394, "annualized_volatility": 0.24522, "from_high_reference": -0.077416, "from_low_reference": 0.542159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 164.357989, "fair_value_reference": 112.779382, "structural_low": 133.033191, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.017439, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.004469, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.145085, "worst_return": -0.129686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021158, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.0183, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.392399, "worst_return": -0.222067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.114685, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.054372, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.459386, "worst_return": -0.049033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114157, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069759, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045825, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029642, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.137269, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080043, 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156.148404 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 186.649994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.7, "trend": 153.610858, "fair_value": 106.789573, "relative_strength": 8.440573, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.603576, "energy": 94.60161, "activity_lines": [ 181.849999, 174.492846, 162.666146, 158.382158 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 197.649994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.7, "trend": 155.730077, "fair_value": 107.614685, "relative_strength": 9.761303, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.468749, "energy": 97.404209, "activity_lines": [ 188.269997, 179.779511, 166.695095, 161.223393 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 187.050964, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.7, "trend": 157.141888, "fair_value": 108.360891, "relative_strength": 5.647068, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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"relative_strength": 6.241231, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.717121, "energy": 62.796893, "activity_lines": [ 189.58584, 187.883573, 177.337707, 169.205432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 187.945221, "volume": 16, "typical_volume": 38.4, "trend": 162.334594, "fair_value": 111.347726, "relative_strength": 4.506982, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.320919, "energy": 60.028783, "activity_lines": [ 188.740128, 188.521581, 179.391063, 170.937744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 183.899994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 38.4, "trend": 163.434702, "fair_value": 112.05356, "relative_strength": 2.07963, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.751039, "energy": 49.47363, "activity_lines": [ 187.192991, 188.038725, 180.810357, 172.32906 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 186.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 38.4, "trend": 164.357989, "fair_value": 112.779382, "relative_strength": 0.044338, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.385799, "energy": 40.348246, "activity_lines": [ 186.555921, 187.762234, 182.195758, 173.784886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }