{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc8818ac-5e11-4370-85c1-13ee7ebe08ee", "symbol": "ALGTR", "name": "Groupe Tera SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.519, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.699, "architecture_energy": 70.108, "architecture_maturity": 22.394, "architecture_confidence": 58.532, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.47, "rotation_up": 71.27, "upward_expansion": 64.09, "deceleration": 24.8, "rotation_down": 16.72, "downward_expansion": 24.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.778081, 5.473103, 4.861341, 4.742199 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.6, "trend_reference": 4.848803, "distance_from_trend": 0.154924, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.598296, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.217843, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.771532, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.050847, "excess_performance": -0.104159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.154924, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055918, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.217843, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.421113, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017715, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.277344, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050847, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.369432, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3069, "relative_activity": 0.241251, "balance": 1.369432, "dry_up": 3.902403, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095849, "annualized_volatility": 1.2578, "from_high_reference": -0.2, "from_low_reference": 1.24 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.848803, "fair_value_reference": 4.598296, "structural_low": 2.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.07956, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.217949, "worst_return": -0.239024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.045517, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.024374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163043, "worst_return": -0.043902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.45122, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.502037, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.652174, "worst_return": -0.081379, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.182927, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.201961, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.434511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073171, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.507538, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-23", 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"close": 6.078417, "volume": 57853, "typical_volume": 5894.05, "trend": 4.869763, "fair_value": 4.633031, "relative_strength": 10.501848, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.487419, "energy": 75.62552, "activity_lines": [ 5.40834, 4.910536, 4.425373, 4.560123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.121223, "volume": 50154, "typical_volume": 8330.85, "trend": 4.867137, "fair_value": 4.622911, "relative_strength": 10.988754, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.856974, "energy": 81.545284, "activity_lines": [ 5.724556, 5.187434, 4.599333, 4.640862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.7, "volume": 87497, "typical_volume": 12655.45, "trend": 4.862137, "fair_value": 4.610988, "relative_strength": 2.036405, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.317512, "energy": 74.313325, "activity_lines": [ 5.789616, 5.35645, 4.733551, 4.694595 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.6, "volume": 3069, "typical_volume": 12721.2, "trend": 4.848803, "fair_value": 4.598296, "relative_strength": -1.771532, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.698523, "energy": 70.107755, "activity_lines": [ 5.778081, 5.473103, 4.861341, 4.742199 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }