{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc8d0beb-d073-45d0-905a-96dc9e3d2229", "symbol": "LCL", "name": "LCL Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 70.113, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.683, "architecture_energy": 5.438, "architecture_maturity": 12.592, "architecture_confidence": 48.983, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.1, "rotation_up": 33.15, "upward_expansion": 37.24, "deceleration": 46.23, "rotation_down": 35.67, "downward_expansion": 20.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.007233, 0.007209, 0.007345, 0.007317 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.0073, "distance_from_trend": -0.041096, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.010686, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.344931, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.88508, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.125, "excess_performance": -0.188706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041096, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028169, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.344931, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026815, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068851, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.359709, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.080174, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 464664, "relative_activity": 0.127547, "balance": 0.080174, "dry_up": 0.560266, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098901, "annualized_volatility": 0.643861, "from_high_reference": -0.3, "from_low_reference": 0.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0073, "fair_value_reference": 0.010686, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": -0.031727, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.233333, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.052522, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.251515, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.237393, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.433333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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0.007407, 0.00736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.007, "volume": 4322262, "typical_volume": 3776545.05, "trend": 0.007333, "fair_value": 0.010859, "relative_strength": -3.999255, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.369255, "energy": 4.216219, "activity_lines": [ 0.007333, 0.007264, 0.007376, 0.007339 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 464664, "typical_volume": 3643089.1, "trend": 0.0073, "fair_value": 0.010686, "relative_strength": -6.88508, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.682841, "energy": 5.438061, "activity_lines": [ 0.007233, 0.007209, 0.007345, 0.007317 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }