{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc924b2f-1d8b-45a0-8609-9afbbec1d43b", "symbol": "TCH-F7", "name": "Tachlit Indices Mutual Fund Management Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (40) EURO STOXX 50 Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.705, "architecture_energy": 64.233, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.627, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.86, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 53.16, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.605333, 73.107091, 1827.693762, 3067.652667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 75.12, "trend_reference": 4492.566, "distance_from_trend": -0.983279, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5362.365256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985991, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.733287, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988889, "excess_performance": -1.017789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983279, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322477, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985991, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.21414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987333, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.80976, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.338979, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16200, "relative_activity": 0.921339, "balance": 1.338979, "dry_up": 0.995544, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.732336, "annualized_volatility": 6.379271, "from_high_reference": -0.989339, "from_low_reference": 0.077916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4492.566, "fair_value_reference": 5362.365256, "structural_low": 69.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.029664, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.007663, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.105529, "worst_return": -0.074365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.142889, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.013408, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.213096, "worst_return": -0.011044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.188383, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.013328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.325101, "worst_return": -0.021084, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.61472, "energy": 68.892223, "activity_lines": [ 72.385333, 444.855636, 2548.386476, 3680.48228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.85, "volume": 13200, "typical_volume": 17118.2, "trend": 4715.595333, "fair_value": 5391.960641, "relative_strength": -98.782212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.157922, "energy": 68.140352, "activity_lines": [ 72.840667, 197.791818, 2172.805476, 3367.038172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.12, "volume": 16200, "typical_volume": 17583.1, "trend": 4492.566, "fair_value": 5362.365256, "relative_strength": -98.733287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.704986, "energy": 64.233209, "activity_lines": [ 73.605333, 73.107091, 1827.693762, 3067.652667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }