{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc93d53a-ff4e-4e3b-9491-8b8e34367d0e", "symbol": "300961", "name": "Hynar Water Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.338, "architecture_energy": 59.88, "architecture_maturity": 25.945, "architecture_confidence": 85.529, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.48, "rotation_up": 13.8, "upward_expansion": 14.72, "deceleration": 35.84, "rotation_down": 66.59, "downward_expansion": 85.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.793333, 11.326545, 11.984476, 12.462559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.83, "trend_reference": 13.134333, "distance_from_trend": -0.099307, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.31359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.039273, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.006809, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.158007, "excess_performance": -0.165407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078917, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.039273, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167591, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088659, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.158007, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.049979, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36945836, "relative_activity": 1.056176, "balance": 1.049979, "dry_up": 1.139106, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162299, "annualized_volatility": 0.707765, "from_high_reference": -0.462273, "from_low_reference": 0.383626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.134333, "fair_value_reference": 12.31359, "structural_low": 8.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.004086, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003802, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.234012, "worst_return": -0.158115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.015923, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.000518, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.448611, "worst_return": -0.184598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.123275, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.104127, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.283582, "worst_return": -0.216374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 12.325064, "relative_strength": -29.414417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.777712, "energy": 23.545193, "activity_lines": [ 12.238, 12.214, 12.671333, 13.043634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.33, "volume": 51550683, "typical_volume": 41207025.75, "trend": 13.357, "fair_value": 12.315641, "relative_strength": -38.010428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.655057, "energy": 47.845998, "activity_lines": [ 11.255333, 11.644545, 12.322429, 12.773785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.92, "volume": 27251246, "typical_volume": 41617725.8, "trend": 13.217, "fair_value": 12.308333, "relative_strength": -32.081574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.752062, "energy": 63.707576, "activity_lines": [ 10.569333, 11.278364, 12.053619, 12.552043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.83, "volume": 36945836, "typical_volume": 34980764.1, "trend": 13.134333, "fair_value": 12.31359, "relative_strength": -22.006809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.337675, "energy": 59.880324, "activity_lines": [ 10.793333, 11.326545, 11.984476, 12.462559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }