{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fc99fa31-c88f-43ae-875c-5c6aac596053", "symbol": "VDPG", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF USD Accumulation", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.425, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.4, "architecture_energy": 19.696, "architecture_maturity": 64.514, "architecture_confidence": 77.87, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.67, "rotation_up": 16.01, "upward_expansion": 41.21, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 41.17, "downward_expansion": 32.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.049333, 42.439454, 42.708405, 41.461086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.314999, "trend_reference": 39.5765, "distance_from_trend": 0.043928, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.594006, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.497245, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.247865, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.198231, "excess_performance": 0.146996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043928, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126712, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.497245, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167857, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.092479, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243443, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.198231, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.756368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 463557, "relative_activity": 1.169858, "balance": 0.756368, "dry_up": 1.212164, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080777, "annualized_volatility": 0.327485, "from_high_reference": -0.144794, "from_low_reference": 0.564962 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.5765, "fair_value_reference": 27.594006, "structural_low": 30.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004503, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006412, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.130131, "worst_return": -0.020076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026812, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.002998, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.269669, "worst_return": -0.028004, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.008626, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027905, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.018996, "worst_return": -0.036248, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034179, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010925, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03218, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009985, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014292, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052806, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.333787, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119156, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041431, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.674999, "volume": 35363, "typical_volume": 19178.1, "trend": 23.345833, "fair_value": 23.194756, "relative_strength": -3.146753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.61841, 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38.9595, "fair_value": 27.363638, "relative_strength": 11.788664, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.635773, "energy": 24.559941, "activity_lines": [ 42.234667, 43.591182, 42.793929, 41.243936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.279999, "volume": 545813, "typical_volume": 393599.6, "trend": 39.269667, "fair_value": 27.47399, "relative_strength": 7.330124, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.179344, "energy": 20.794318, "activity_lines": [ 41.269333, 42.895454, 42.713572, 41.329129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.314999, "volume": 463557, "typical_volume": 396250.65, "trend": 39.5765, "fair_value": 27.594006, "relative_strength": 9.247865, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.399736, "energy": 19.69581, "activity_lines": [ 41.049333, 42.439454, 42.708405, 41.461086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }