{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fca42dd9-69a8-484a-89ff-f579024143c5", "symbol": "MEC", "name": "Mayville Engineering Co Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.092, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.202, "architecture_energy": 20.834, "architecture_maturity": 60.789, "architecture_confidence": 85.727, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.84, "rotation_up": 12.82, "upward_expansion": 52.53, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 44.34, "downward_expansion": 23.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.334, 30.198364, 29.483143, 27.339763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.18, "trend_reference": 24.733, "distance_from_trend": -0.022359, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.039744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.419035, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.15001, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116859, "excess_performance": -0.008766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.244198, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.419035, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331582, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.0415, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.368152, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116859, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.190393, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4652376, "relative_activity": 2.077358, "balance": 1.190393, "dry_up": 1.494323, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182959, "annualized_volatility": 0.632551, "from_high_reference": -0.376161, "from_low_reference": 0.973878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.733, "fair_value_reference": 17.039744, "structural_low": 16.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.03311, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030058, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.263221, "worst_return": -0.132043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070614, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.01825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.144231, "worst_return": 0.010814, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.165653, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.261212, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.40818, "worst_return": -0.374502, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.014094, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.257936, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.078267, "worst_return": -0.593625, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.228134, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097433, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073569, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.150311, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.274691, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099888, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057015, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.104726, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.319712, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.36196, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058044, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.72, "volume": 347139, "typical_volume": 634032.0, "trend": 13.168667, "fair_value": 12.641859, "relative_strength": -7.346136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"volume": 1779879, "typical_volume": 1775179.25, "trend": 23.491, "fair_value": 16.638526, "relative_strength": 53.650072, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.619216, "energy": 64.974712, "activity_lines": [ 34.709333, 33.192182, 28.883429, 26.387011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.92, "volume": 2806671, "typical_volume": 1884845.25, "trend": 23.944, "fair_value": 16.759808, "relative_strength": 41.514797, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.532987, "energy": 51.220599, "activity_lines": [ 33.320667, 33.114545, 29.406429, 26.866301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.29, "volume": 2539822, "typical_volume": 1921579.4, "trend": 24.316667, "fair_value": 16.876667, "relative_strength": 38.054755, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.123437, "energy": 33.028333, "activity_lines": [ 32.026, 32.854727, 29.82219, 27.27572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.67, "volume": 3387660, "typical_volume": 2045635.45, "trend": 24.540667, "fair_value": 16.963526, "relative_strength": 15.155528, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.973286, "energy": 21.963436, "activity_lines": [ 29.550667, 31.664, 29.745048, 27.363032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.18, "volume": 4652376, "typical_volume": 2239563.85, "trend": 24.733, "fair_value": 17.039744, "relative_strength": 4.15001, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.20207, "energy": 20.833613, "activity_lines": [ 27.334, 30.198364, 29.483143, 27.339763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }