{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fca757bb-5735-4434-869d-8f0a69a52da6", "symbol": "ICFP", "name": "Invesco MSCI Europe Catholic Principles UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.059, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.675, "architecture_energy": 59.18, "architecture_maturity": 62.602, "architecture_confidence": 49.892, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.31, "rotation_up": 48.5, "upward_expansion": 78.62, "deceleration": 71.29, "rotation_down": 27.91, "downward_expansion": 9.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.057333, 69.891441, 68.663852, 67.526717 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 70.959999, "trend_reference": 66.346877, "distance_from_trend": 0.06953, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.989726, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.245137, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.818529, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.08713, "excess_performance": -0.083761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06953, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040727, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.245137, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055575, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048185, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012475, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08713, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.293757, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2480, "relative_activity": 0.373252, "balance": 0.293757, "dry_up": 3.465677, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01954, "annualized_volatility": 0.178927, "from_high_reference": -0.00393, "from_low_reference": 0.228944 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.346877, "fair_value_reference": 56.989726, "structural_low": 59.290001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.0148, "positive_rate": 0.609756, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": -0.00295, "regime_survival": 0.731707, "best_return": 0.081392, "worst_return": -0.089286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.009258, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.021879, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.111379, "worst_return": -0.048932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.070144, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.033618, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.130541, "worst_return": -0.198518, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": 67.029687, "energy": 84.727518, "activity_lines": [ 69.906666, 68.994827, 67.289536, 66.445676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.629997, "volume": 41562, "typical_volume": 4469.15, "trend": 65.63129, "fair_value": 56.572954, "relative_strength": -3.690685, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.368497, "energy": 80.712798, "activity_lines": [ 69.905998, 69.268379, 67.634826, 66.719906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.620003, "volume": 34926, "typical_volume": 6065.75, "trend": 65.882803, "fair_value": 56.705215, "relative_strength": -3.420963, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.777876, "energy": 72.201659, "activity_lines": [ 69.836, 69.46849, 67.967886, 66.977242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.540001, "volume": 13140, "typical_volume": 6599.85, "trend": 66.100335, "fair_value": 56.836963, "relative_strength": -4.086028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.46135, "energy": 52.553707, "activity_lines": [ 69.724667, 69.562966, 68.26344, 67.21319 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.959999, "volume": 2480, "typical_volume": 6644.3, "trend": 66.346877, "fair_value": 56.989726, "relative_strength": -4.818529, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.675165, "energy": 59.179703, "activity_lines": [ 70.057333, 69.891441, 68.663852, 67.526717 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }