{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fca85713-22c4-4eec-9475-d6080196055a", "symbol": "GENL", "name": "Genel Energy plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 14.515, "architecture_energy": 10.662, "architecture_maturity": 17.143, "architecture_confidence": 53.489, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.47, "rotation_up": 31.75, "upward_expansion": 34.7, "deceleration": 36.99, "rotation_down": 29.26, "downward_expansion": 47.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.552933, 0.546164, 0.5358, 0.541129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.627, "trend_reference": 0.5553, "distance_from_trend": 0.129119, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.692167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094149, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.522819, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048495, "excess_performance": -0.00274, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129119, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025732, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094149, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.216272, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187079, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048495, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.455478, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5709120, "relative_activity": 6.211236, "balance": 3.455478, "dry_up": 2.568829, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067604, "annualized_volatility": 0.439902, "from_high_reference": -0.24719, "from_low_reference": 0.30083 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.5553, "fair_value_reference": 0.692167, "structural_low": 0.482, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031012, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.055592, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.027677, "worst_return": -0.134111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.021831, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009741, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128144, "worst_return": 0.004769, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.036566, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.174821, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.327062, "worst_return": -0.122156, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -2.523256, "energy": 14.284011, "activity_lines": [ 0.549667, 0.537491, 0.53309, 0.545411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.513, "volume": 957998, "typical_volume": 761142.5, "trend": 0.5584, "fair_value": 0.69984, "relative_strength": -18.480486, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.635703, "energy": 18.30542, "activity_lines": [ 0.539667, 0.534745, 0.530424, 0.542333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.518, "volume": 1961489, "typical_volume": 786373.0, "trend": 0.556667, "fair_value": 0.696494, "relative_strength": -18.215973, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.491629, "energy": 16.567202, "activity_lines": [ 0.533, 0.5328, 0.528857, 0.539727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.505, "volume": 816052, "typical_volume": 771961.75, "trend": 0.5536, "fair_value": 0.693724, "relative_strength": -20.692722, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.111248, "energy": 30.453895, "activity_lines": [ 0.5222, 0.528345, 0.526333, 0.536394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.627, "volume": 5709120, "typical_volume": 919160.0, "trend": 0.5553, "fair_value": 0.692167, "relative_strength": -1.522819, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.514911, "energy": 10.661885, "activity_lines": [ 0.552933, 0.546164, 0.5358, 0.541129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }