{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcb4776f-0ed5-4109-bcfd-ddd0c0a69c43", "symbol": "JBL", "name": "Jabil Circuit Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.734, "architecture_energy": 16.037, "architecture_maturity": 53.688, "architecture_confidence": 73.66, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.33, "rotation_up": 20.18, "upward_expansion": 43.11, "deceleration": 83.81, "rotation_down": 39.89, "downward_expansion": 34.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 322.425333, 331.210909, 339.001509, 326.508582 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 341.22, "trend_reference": 306.441449, "distance_from_trend": 0.113492, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 180.670644, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.88863, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.606421, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.322, "excess_performance": 0.196375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113492, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152531, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.88863, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.324068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.146064, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223236, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.322, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.630556, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5115601, "relative_activity": 0.859835, "balance": 0.630556, "dry_up": 0.905299, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116393, "annualized_volatility": 0.38337, "from_high_reference": -0.20449, "from_low_reference": 0.800667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 306.441449, "fair_value_reference": 180.670644, "structural_low": 234.904699, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.053752, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.060646, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.308502, "worst_return": -0.073722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.271552, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.230291, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.395259, "worst_return": -0.072909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.371327, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.279829, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.576123, "worst_return": -0.099925, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 39.522127, "energy": 24.555, "activity_lines": [ 348.068667, 354.685026, 341.63354, 321.699969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 301.01, "volume": 5799720, "typical_volume": 6252392.15, "trend": 297.554994, "fair_value": 176.520125, "relative_strength": 6.361366, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.271712, "energy": 18.533711, "activity_lines": [ 329.279333, 344.615455, 339.784127, 322.083117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 312.59, "volume": 4384934, "typical_volume": 6186944.55, "trend": 300.108624, "fair_value": 177.82998, "relative_strength": 10.711661, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.83662, "energy": 18.51536, "activity_lines": [ 319.937333, 337.634182, 338.865751, 323.053117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 315.05, "volume": 6244103, "typical_volume": 6205279.75, "trend": 302.601666, "fair_value": 179.157515, "relative_strength": 10.003339, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.200029, "energy": 19.413009, "activity_lines": [ 315.368, 331.595273, 337.840913, 324.017077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 341.22, "volume": 5115601, "typical_volume": 5949512.15, "trend": 306.441449, "fair_value": 180.670644, "relative_strength": 14.606421, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.733694, "energy": 16.036675, "activity_lines": [ 322.425333, 331.210909, 339.001509, 326.508582 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }