{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcb49788-2486-40a0-adc0-252e820a9044", "symbol": "NNO2", "name": "Novo Nordisk A/S", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 51.031, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.106, "architecture_energy": 48.3, "architecture_maturity": 76.465, "architecture_confidence": 51.197, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.67, "rotation_up": 45.35, "upward_expansion": 74.65, "deceleration": 71.01, "rotation_down": 28.06, "downward_expansion": 12.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.212001, 42.134909, 40.511976, 38.131359 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.700001, "trend_reference": 35.864921, "distance_from_trend": 0.162696, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.132225, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.15127, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.93639, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.401263, "excess_performance": 0.227017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.162696, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092962, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.15127, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031914, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012037, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.401263, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.152201, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23263, "relative_activity": 0.540964, "balance": 1.152201, "dry_up": 1.191578, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065495, "annualized_volatility": 0.588582, "from_high_reference": -0.079369, "from_low_reference": 0.808796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.864921, "fair_value_reference": 49.132225, "structural_low": 23.054014, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.038153, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": 0.028299, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.150715, "worst_return": -0.134224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.113949, "positive_rate": 0.916667, "directional_follow_through": 0.916667, "median_excess_return": 0.083264, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.332876, "worst_return": -0.029502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.263885, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.174082, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.368132, "worst_return": 0.170142, "sufficient": true 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36.267501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.360001, "volume": 84365, "typical_volume": 41236.0, "trend": 35.158945, "fair_value": 49.103887, "relative_strength": 7.038627, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.340081, "energy": 89.94075, "activity_lines": [ 43.262334, 41.571545, 39.069917, 36.890031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.965, "volume": 56382, "typical_volume": 42086.45, "trend": 35.483398, "fair_value": 49.134029, "relative_strength": 3.023394, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.008522, "energy": 83.204971, "activity_lines": [ 43.432667, 42.027364, 39.737938, 37.393647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.965, "volume": 40955, "typical_volume": 42318.55, "trend": 35.747065, "fair_value": 49.150734, "relative_strength": -1.78145, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.574129, "energy": 54.690542, "activity_lines": [ 42.656334, 42.036, 40.128321, 37.747299 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.700001, "volume": 23263, "typical_volume": 43002.85, "trend": 35.864921, "fair_value": 49.132225, "relative_strength": -2.93639, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.105853, "energy": 48.300313, "activity_lines": [ 42.212001, 42.134909, 40.511976, 38.131359 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }