{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcb4c6a2-3e3f-4488-9542-e141119d00b8", "symbol": "SNOA", "name": "Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.869, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.614, "architecture_energy": 44.023, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.789, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.1, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 24.64, "deceleration": 36.07, "rotation_down": 37.87, "downward_expansion": 63.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.246667, 1.213636, 1.236095, 1.477238 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.44, "trend_reference": 1.889837, "distance_from_trend": -0.238029, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.015905, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.641426, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -55.876461, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.524752, "excess_performance": -0.712206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.238029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291622, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.641426, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149574, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.558765, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139457, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.524752, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.347806, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2862277, "relative_activity": 2.958472, "balance": 5.347806, "dry_up": 0.875581, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103616, "annualized_volatility": 1.15005, "from_high_reference": -0.791905, "from_low_reference": 0.693918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.889837, "fair_value_reference": 4.015905, "structural_low": 0.8501, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.055233, "positive_rate": 0.340426, "directional_follow_through": 0.638298, "median_excess_return": -0.067961, "regime_survival": 0.914894, "best_return": 0.440329, "worst_return": -0.738731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.175439, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.215776, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.489437, "worst_return": -0.798817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.360357, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.447053, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.657534, "worst_return": -0.827219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136691, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.334448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014164, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045643, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.255319, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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50.569142, "activity_lines": [ 1.153333, 1.142182, 1.403715, 1.766798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.26, "volume": 617772, "typical_volume": 810842.2, "trend": 2.20917, "fair_value": 4.530713, "relative_strength": -64.014969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.506121, "energy": 45.834548, "activity_lines": [ 1.192667, 1.163273, 1.358167, 1.700551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.21, "volume": 254964, "typical_volume": 822796.95, "trend": 2.130503, "fair_value": 4.392315, "relative_strength": -63.257798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.875268, "energy": 41.586919, "activity_lines": [ 1.207333, 1.174182, 1.315857, 1.636088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.14, "volume": 122867, "typical_volume": 823125.2, "trend": 2.04817, "fair_value": 4.257315, "relative_strength": -64.182691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.007631, "energy": 75.55206, "activity_lines": [ 1.190667, 1.172182, 1.274929, 1.572185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.1, "volume": 148338, "typical_volume": 828221.55, "trend": 1.963503, "fair_value": 4.131033, "relative_strength": -65.076895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.749889, "energy": 83.082533, "activity_lines": [ 1.161333, 1.162, 1.236095, 1.511012 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.44, "volume": 2862277, "typical_volume": 967484.9, "trend": 1.889837, "fair_value": 4.015905, "relative_strength": -55.876461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.614115, "energy": 44.022597, "activity_lines": [ 1.246667, 1.213636, 1.236095, 1.477238 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }