{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcb6e4fe-616c-460d-8b5c-63cda1c67010", "symbol": "688551", "name": "Hefei Kewell Power System Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 80.649, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.489, "architecture_energy": 34.386, "architecture_maturity": 56.173, "architecture_confidence": 62.21, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.2, "rotation_up": 14.08, "upward_expansion": 16.44, "deceleration": 71.47, "rotation_down": 64.69, "downward_expansion": 41.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.047999, 46.94509, 48.577636, 47.022909 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.099998, "trend_reference": 45.013818, "distance_from_trend": -0.109162, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.9536, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02943, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.563205, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017868, "excess_performance": 0.061072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109162, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117203, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02943, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061164, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055632, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015698, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017868, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.438644, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18777474, "relative_activity": 0.857865, "balance": 1.438644, "dry_up": 0.802369, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.29183, "annualized_volatility": 1.021687, "from_high_reference": -0.500809, "from_low_reference": 0.311771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.013818, "fair_value_reference": 38.9536, "structural_low": 31.176006, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.015261, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.023712, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.14089, "worst_return": -0.109892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.055427, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.059807, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.028394, "worst_return": -0.159132, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.182585, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.151212, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.159432, "worst_return": -0.205739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 39.295742, "relative_strength": -5.622638, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.008217, "energy": 21.231575, "activity_lines": [ 46.753999, 53.087896, 50.455215, 48.02389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.299999, "volume": 13608448, "typical_volume": 21853441.85, "trend": 44.901588, "fair_value": 39.09671, "relative_strength": -16.724729, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.690801, "energy": 33.113014, "activity_lines": [ 40.638666, 49.333719, 49.208854, 47.332689 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.099998, "volume": 18777474, "typical_volume": 21888607.7, "trend": 45.013818, "fair_value": 38.9536, "relative_strength": -5.563205, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.488973, "energy": 34.386308, "activity_lines": [ 39.047999, 46.94509, 48.577636, 47.022909 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }