{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcb8a0d8-c6dc-49be-bc5f-7eec6665b165", "symbol": "A2ZINFRA", "name": "A2Z Infra Engineering Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 54.414, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.114, "architecture_energy": 9.558, "architecture_maturity": 68.896, "architecture_confidence": 52.326, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.39, "rotation_up": 35.64, "upward_expansion": 21.8, "deceleration": 41.06, "rotation_down": 25.0, "downward_expansion": 60.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.052, 14.478363, 14.76219, 15.088645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.389999, "trend_reference": 15.272, "distance_from_trend": 0.138685, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.080897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.081407, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.778597, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.242143, "excess_performance": 0.285852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.138685, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036386, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.081407, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03601, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.087786, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120832, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.242143, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.565497, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4664273, "relative_activity": 4.47239, "balance": 1.565497, "dry_up": 2.400282, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089751, "annualized_volatility": 0.537417, "from_high_reference": -0.23189, "from_low_reference": 0.449167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.272, "fair_value_reference": 16.080897, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.013381, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.011644, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.532334, "worst_return": -0.194555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001617, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071395, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.442919, "worst_return": -0.341969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.135862, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.132718, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.346457, "worst_return": -0.386473, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.083539, "energy": 67.097189, "activity_lines": [ 13.881333, 14.228182, 15.074809, 15.274817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.84, "volume": 1806824, "typical_volume": 767410.75, "trend": 15.357667, "fair_value": 15.923205, "relative_strength": -20.443632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.492817, "energy": 73.9737, "activity_lines": [ 13.500667, 13.909273, 14.805952, 15.109871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.46, "volume": 921849, "typical_volume": 738473.95, "trend": 15.185333, "fair_value": 15.959167, "relative_strength": -20.120434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.426148, "energy": 75.97486, "activity_lines": [ 13.080667, 13.582, 14.524857, 14.922925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.55, "volume": 2620110, "typical_volume": 844933.35, "trend": 15.186, "fair_value": 16.014936, "relative_strength": -2.222911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.902339, "energy": 33.358597, "activity_lines": [ 13.817333, 13.863091, 14.555, 14.946452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.389999, "volume": 4664273, "typical_volume": 1042903.95, "trend": 15.272, "fair_value": 16.080897, "relative_strength": 8.778597, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.114147, "energy": 9.558284, "activity_lines": [ 15.052, 14.478363, 14.76219, 15.088645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }