{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcbcad11-3bc5-41fc-b776-dbd72811cd3a", "symbol": "MTF-F31", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4D) STOXX Europe 600", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.796, "architecture_energy": 63.053, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.53, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.74, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.35, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.168, 56.338182, 1415.212381, 2433.188387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 57.65, "trend_reference": 3618.413333, "distance_from_trend": -0.984068, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4704.207692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987745, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.831356, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989687, "excess_performance": -1.018587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984068, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329957, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987745, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.053024, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.728267, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989687, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.532022, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111535, "relative_activity": 2.558295, "balance": 0.532022, "dry_up": 1.30642, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.311522, "annualized_volatility": 6.346157, "from_high_reference": -0.990106, "from_low_reference": 0.087736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3618.413333, "fair_value_reference": 4704.207692, "structural_low": 53.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.003581, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015573, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.138188, "worst_return": -0.98963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011752, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.032847, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.15873, "worst_return": -0.128872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011991, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037747, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.140185, "worst_return": -0.060273, "sufficient": false }, { 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.632001, "energy": 67.549046, "activity_lines": [ 55.977333, 334.241455, 1985.345619, 2927.905118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.12, "volume": 81837, "typical_volume": 38398.9, "trend": 3801.158333, "fair_value": 4732.357372, "relative_strength": -98.850181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.228203, "energy": 66.911, "activity_lines": [ 56.768667, 148.379091, 1687.763571, 2674.705054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.65, "volume": 111535, "typical_volume": 43597.4, "trend": 3618.413333, "fair_value": 4704.207692, "relative_strength": -98.831356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.79565, "energy": 63.05318, "activity_lines": [ 57.168, 56.338182, 1415.212381, 2433.188387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }