{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcc3fc23-510e-4248-a133-9aedfe35b5eb", "symbol": "BAZ", "name": "Lion Asiapac Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.757, "architecture_energy": 19.289, "architecture_maturity": 53.622, "architecture_confidence": 78.252, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.71, "rotation_up": 30.22, "upward_expansion": 56.96, "deceleration": 85.24, "rotation_down": 35.99, "downward_expansion": 20.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.261667, 0.264091, 0.262881, 0.25928 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.27, "trend_reference": 0.256167, "distance_from_trend": 0.054001, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.212568, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270182, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.796105, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.038462, "excess_performance": -0.116374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054001, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005232, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.270182, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021923, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069997, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038462, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.416196, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111900, "relative_activity": 5.47858, "balance": 3.416196, "dry_up": 1.833537, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10114, "annualized_volatility": 0.639579, "from_high_reference": -0.169231, "from_low_reference": 0.317073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.256167, "fair_value_reference": 0.212568, "structural_low": 0.205, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.040816, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.075311, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.073532, "worst_return": -0.214285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008141, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.077058, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.061224, "worst_return": -0.157143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.13441, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.014492, "worst_return": -0.22857, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.183333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040816, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104167, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.243902, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.245, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 15635.0, "trend": 0.2545, "fair_value": 0.211854, "relative_strength": -19.232766, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.121784, "energy": 25.249456, "activity_lines": [ 0.265333, 0.263273, 0.261071, 0.257957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.26, "volume": 16800, "typical_volume": 14845.0, "trend": 0.255, "fair_value": 0.212168, "relative_strength": -14.380844, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.671852, "energy": 11.59209, "activity_lines": [ 0.262333, 0.262364, 0.2615, 0.258312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.27, "volume": 111900, "typical_volume": 20425.0, "trend": 0.256167, "fair_value": 0.212568, "relative_strength": -11.796105, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.756819, "energy": 19.288753, "activity_lines": [ 0.261667, 0.264091, 0.262881, 0.25928 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }