{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcc6ed99-1b03-4475-8b3a-f3986e491845", "symbol": "DXN", "name": "Dynamic Active Global Infrastructure ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.042, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.1, "architecture_energy": 21.061, "architecture_maturity": 57.382, "architecture_confidence": 72.91, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.96, "rotation_up": 19.38, "upward_expansion": 56.18, "deceleration": 91.1, "rotation_down": 35.58, "downward_expansion": 22.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.446666, 26.631116, 26.472349, 26.323108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.15, "trend_reference": 26.025615, "distance_from_trend": 0.004779, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.458248, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218646, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.310086, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.036436, "excess_performance": -0.083986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004779, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034891, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218646, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028053, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073101, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036436, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.51087, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 0.121951, "balance": 0.51087, "dry_up": 0.54878, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01326, "annualized_volatility": 0.110571, "from_high_reference": -0.042125, "from_low_reference": 0.145045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.025615, "fair_value_reference": 21.458248, "structural_low": 24.951694, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.027111, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.000793, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.057457, "worst_return": -0.047864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.061826, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.013616, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.113171, "worst_return": 0.008812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.082875, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.018292, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121326, "worst_return": 0.020072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.84404, "energy": 83.896651, "activity_lines": [ 26.97658, 26.642638, 26.387235, 26.152628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.719999, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 1810.0, "trend": 25.785715, "fair_value": 21.297367, "relative_strength": -2.996871, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.162737, "energy": 80.731602, "activity_lines": [ 26.929696, 26.705026, 26.434091, 26.219219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.700001, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 1725.0, "trend": 25.881925, "fair_value": 21.351029, "relative_strength": -3.1687, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.925406, "energy": 62.100165, "activity_lines": [ 26.849333, 26.748888, 26.478356, 26.278205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.389999, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 1660.0, "trend": 25.962088, "fair_value": 21.405675, "relative_strength": -3.66843, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.857689, "energy": 32.126628, "activity_lines": [ 26.660666, 26.715363, 26.489091, 26.310984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.15, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 1640.0, "trend": 26.025615, "fair_value": 21.458248, "relative_strength": -7.310086, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.099591, "energy": 21.061395, "activity_lines": [ 26.446666, 26.631116, 26.472349, 26.323108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }