{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fce69072-a100-46e2-a9d7-f2a457187a80", "symbol": "LYV", "name": "Live Nation Entertainment Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.369, "architecture_energy": 32.149, "architecture_maturity": 41.802, "architecture_confidence": 58.632, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.16, "rotation_up": 38.66, "upward_expansion": 62.77, "deceleration": 67.47, "rotation_down": 24.33, "downward_expansion": 15.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 178.118, 178.210364, 173.269333, 168.742925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 180.66, "trend_reference": 162.708, "distance_from_trend": 0.110333, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 126.512244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.428004, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.161691, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.282732, "excess_performance": 0.157107, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110333, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080269, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.428004, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060089, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021617, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061091, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.282732, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.128877, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10627741, "relative_activity": 0.8547, "balance": 1.128877, "dry_up": 0.826374, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062101, "annualized_volatility": 0.280788, "from_high_reference": -0.039043, "from_low_reference": 0.44136 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 162.708, "fair_value_reference": 126.512244, "structural_low": 140.45, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.033805, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.026902, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.13384, "worst_return": -0.081394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008346, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033267, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.083659, "worst_return": -0.061869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.049882, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.003455, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.109726, "worst_return": -0.194407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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74.130737, "energy": 53.512887, "activity_lines": [ 172.556, 169.327273, 164.238952, 160.599398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 186.59, "volume": 13190885, "typical_volume": 14055132.05, "trend": 157.021, "fair_value": 123.710513, "relative_strength": 9.438133, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.775399, "energy": 77.472511, "activity_lines": [ 177.973333, 172.993091, 166.652667, 162.60871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 179.79, "volume": 9837205, "typical_volume": 13717977.8, "trend": 158.242667, "fair_value": 124.2575, "relative_strength": 3.987511, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.729684, "energy": 71.354753, "activity_lines": [ 179.912, 174.878, 168.283905, 164.077677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 180.22, "volume": 7809984, "typical_volume": 13256897.65, "trend": 159.546667, "fair_value": 124.791987, "relative_strength": 5.871211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.066556, "energy": 71.664841, "activity_lines": [ 180.679333, 176.449455, 169.874571, 165.49557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 177.24, "volume": 7854297, "typical_volume": 12846810.15, "trend": 160.594333, "fair_value": 125.355513, "relative_strength": 4.761692, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.791494, "energy": 56.638456, "activity_lines": [ 179.939333, 177.171091, 171.095333, 166.637075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 174.13, "volume": 14810028, "typical_volume": 12583280.65, "trend": 161.555, "fair_value": 125.909359, "relative_strength": 1.846466, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.186914, "energy": 36.045859, "activity_lines": [ 177.762667, 177.175091, 171.919381, 167.510344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 180.66, "volume": 10627741, "typical_volume": 12434463.4, "trend": 162.708, "fair_value": 126.512244, "relative_strength": 2.161691, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.369247, "energy": 32.149426, "activity_lines": [ 178.118, 178.210364, 173.269333, 168.742925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }