{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fceaa73e-e801-4999-9562-3cd34e528905", "symbol": "601179", "name": "China XD Electric Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.222, "architecture_energy": 45.245, "architecture_maturity": 14.111, "architecture_confidence": 73.486, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.86, "rotation_up": 16.01, "upward_expansion": 7.27, "deceleration": 45.25, "rotation_down": 55.58, "downward_expansion": 78.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.404, 13.628883, 14.548864, 15.02945 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.07, "trend_reference": 15.23361, "distance_from_trend": -0.076384, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.190054, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.717937, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.47448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029655, "excess_performance": 0.013549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076384, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122392, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.717937, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.591245, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.184745, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.4166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029655, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.716821, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1091668064, "relative_activity": 1.407115, "balance": 0.716821, "dry_up": 1.224232, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1311, "annualized_volatility": 0.574681, "from_high_reference": -0.318644, "from_low_reference": 1.256917 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.23361, "fair_value_reference": 8.190054, "structural_low": 11.49, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028653, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.036998, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.069663, "worst_return": -0.081238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.102028, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.049319, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067416, "worst_return": -0.193424, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062029, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.074332, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.121765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"activity_lines": [ 14.182927, 14.722078, 15.512403, 15.475221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.64, "volume": 597624737, "typical_volume": 882276160.95, "trend": 14.793277, "fair_value": 8.028512, "relative_strength": 6.072011, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.173388, "energy": 62.014377, "activity_lines": [ 13.314621, 14.05423, 15.09303, 15.277289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.55, "volume": 1093108342, "typical_volume": 846025944.6, "trend": 14.940277, "fair_value": 8.081592, "relative_strength": 20.449443, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.381974, "energy": 53.378084, "activity_lines": [ 13.202, 13.833525, 14.876705, 15.197078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.34, "volume": 1016734447, "typical_volume": 785986422.25, "trend": 15.067944, "fair_value": 8.132922, "relative_strength": 16.797005, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.955746, "energy": 50.661962, "activity_lines": [ 13.13, 13.638877, 14.66776, 15.093834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.07, "volume": 1091668064, "typical_volume": 775820194.35, "trend": 15.23361, "fair_value": 8.190054, "relative_strength": 18.47448, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.221714, "energy": 45.244774, "activity_lines": [ 13.404, 13.628883, 14.548864, 15.02945 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }