{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fceebf2f-6cba-417f-af57-d883a86b5998", "symbol": "9517", "name": "MOBI Industry Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 62.289, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.179, "architecture_energy": 15.409, "architecture_maturity": 28.904, "architecture_confidence": 68.029, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.52, "rotation_up": 23.65, "upward_expansion": 16.28, "deceleration": 53.95, "rotation_down": 42.03, "downward_expansion": 63.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.032, 10.078, 10.068227, 10.211918 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.35, "trend_reference": 10.391018, "distance_from_trend": -0.003947, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.72842, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035273, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.831328, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.026183, "excess_performance": 0.005646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003947, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030486, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.035273, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01515, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078401, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026183, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.733624, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38945, "relative_activity": 0.389858, "balance": 0.733624, "dry_up": 1.318168, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085471, "annualized_volatility": 0.346682, "from_high_reference": -0.228795, "from_low_reference": 0.147119 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.391018, "fair_value_reference": 10.72842, "structural_low": 9.0226, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005164, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005353, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.060694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.060867, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030342, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.26362, "worst_return": -0.117328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.084936, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.084755, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.306838, "worst_return": -0.119139, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -8.995712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.472045, "energy": 19.926709, "activity_lines": [ 10.214, 10.038843, 10.185205, 10.333489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.0, "volume": 102191, "typical_volume": 89930.7, "trend": 10.510175, "fair_value": 10.653271, "relative_strength": -6.039653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.562045, "energy": 16.823189, "activity_lines": [ 10.17, 10.043044, 10.151648, 10.29868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.75, "volume": 323310, "typical_volume": 101386.65, "trend": 10.446572, "fair_value": 10.676981, "relative_strength": -8.616486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.467871, "energy": 16.511709, "activity_lines": [ 10.022, 10.004435, 10.094312, 10.249636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.92, "volume": 62270, "typical_volume": 101474.35, "trend": 10.408067, "fair_value": 10.701727, "relative_strength": -4.808822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.705042, "energy": 25.432747, "activity_lines": [ 9.94, 10.005539, 10.058274, 10.215664 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.35, "volume": 38945, "typical_volume": 99895.45, "trend": 10.391018, "fair_value": 10.72842, "relative_strength": -2.831328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.178632, "energy": 15.409472, "activity_lines": [ 10.032, 10.078, 10.068227, 10.211918 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }