{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcef3e5e-f5c0-4e13-8dad-da5436b0ecb1", "symbol": "OUNZ", "name": "VANECK MERK GOLD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.489, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.73, "architecture_energy": 42.886, "architecture_maturity": 54.254, "architecture_confidence": 69.099, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.41, "rotation_up": 25.66, "upward_expansion": 17.99, "deceleration": 66.32, "rotation_down": 49.93, "downward_expansion": 72.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.866, 39.736182, 41.052429, 42.374624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 41.74, "trend_reference": 44.045667, "distance_from_trend": -0.052347, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.19641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.382284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.685664, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.124397, "excess_performance": -0.250022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052347, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008167, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.382284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219065, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134356, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124397, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.55332, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2933483, "relative_activity": 0.763025, "balance": 0.55332, "dry_up": 0.829957, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046056, "annualized_volatility": 0.242544, "from_high_reference": -0.217619, "from_low_reference": 0.307235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.045667, "fair_value_reference": 30.19641, "structural_low": 38.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003763, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.006042, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.075282, "worst_return": -0.041888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037783, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.002673, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.164486, "worst_return": -0.041219, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.116487, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.105663, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121505, "worst_return": 0.112725, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00826, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022335, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049858, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033718, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.12732, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": 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4482860.15, "trend": 44.453, "fair_value": 29.664808, "relative_strength": -13.340235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.842017, "energy": 82.858468, "activity_lines": [ 39.668667, 40.669636, 42.414476, 43.591613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.6, "volume": 4449538, "typical_volume": 4461119.65, "trend": 44.347667, "fair_value": 29.790385, "relative_strength": -13.985188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.894121, "energy": 82.459436, "activity_lines": [ 39.248, 40.105818, 41.903381, 43.214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.97, "volume": 2831468, "typical_volume": 4197639.85, "trend": 44.192333, "fair_value": 29.918654, "relative_strength": -12.696069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.279728, "energy": 68.595628, "activity_lines": [ 39.076, 39.733455, 41.484905, 42.867054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.92, "volume": 2548741, "typical_volume": 4104063.3, "trend": 44.100333, "fair_value": 30.047628, "relative_strength": -13.740428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.339862, "energy": 59.628494, "activity_lines": [ 38.992667, 39.438182, 41.112143, 42.526903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.74, "volume": 2933483, "typical_volume": 3844544.25, "trend": 44.045667, "fair_value": 30.19641, "relative_strength": -10.685664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.729799, "energy": 42.886472, "activity_lines": [ 39.866, 39.736182, 41.052429, 42.374624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }