{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcf0339a-4170-4547-8c17-fdee6f427e5d", "symbol": "ADS", "name": "adidas AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.678, "architecture_energy": 25.548, "architecture_maturity": 61.893, "architecture_confidence": 74.822, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.54, "rotation_up": 26.12, "upward_expansion": 59.4, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 33.25, "downward_expansion": 23.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 168.180003, 172.997275, 167.017878, 160.688427 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 164.050003, "trend_reference": 154.594259, "distance_from_trend": 0.061165, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 188.498993, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.129704, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.258435, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093416, "excess_performance": 0.028777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061165, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03184, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.129704, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089827, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052584, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079004, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093416, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.594893, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4199726, "relative_activity": 1.482896, "balance": 0.594893, "dry_up": 1.715388, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071414, "annualized_volatility": 0.34583, "from_high_reference": -0.149039, "from_low_reference": 0.2861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 154.594259, "fair_value_reference": 188.498993, "structural_low": 127.556181, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012054, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.01436, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.094774, "worst_return": -0.121749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.073873, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.040047, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.099875, "worst_return": -0.167297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.069295, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.116576, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181126, "worst_return": -0.297124, "sufficient": false }, { 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150.639833, "fair_value": 188.286496, "relative_strength": 6.325286, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.990438, "energy": 74.044141, "activity_lines": [ 165.470002, 157.125951, 149.364132, 149.271815 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 174.899994, "volume": 1261231, "typical_volume": 3145283.4, "trend": 151.509587, "fair_value": 188.308206, "relative_strength": 4.333485, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.158745, "energy": 76.019601, "activity_lines": [ 170.13, 161.492503, 152.031177, 150.836987 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 181.699997, "volume": 612529, "typical_volume": 3025859.65, "trend": 152.318078, "fair_value": 188.367912, "relative_strength": 10.020346, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.165407, "energy": 89.571896, "activity_lines": [ 175.109999, 166.37472, 155.210139, 152.784755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 185.300003, "volume": 276571, "typical_volume": 2907088.95, "trend": 153.118964, "fair_value": 188.520063, "relative_strength": 7.77484, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.987085, "energy": 92.149515, "activity_lines": [ 179.476666, 171.220632, 158.58117, 154.912621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 181.850006, "volume": 2874671, "typical_volume": 2923023.3, "trend": 153.700149, "fair_value": 188.608826, "relative_strength": 9.141918, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.701898, "energy": 86.733634, "activity_lines": [ 181.446668, 174.501819, 161.465514, 156.766237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 181.100006, "volume": 2526261, "typical_volume": 2858868.25, "trend": 154.334859, "fair_value": 188.696262, "relative_strength": 10.051153, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.214431, "energy": 83.442426, "activity_lines": [ 181.80667, 176.970911, 164.154271, 158.53397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 173.600006, "volume": 3308100, "typical_volume": 2638905.4, "trend": 154.742474, "fair_value": 188.658297, "relative_strength": 4.715617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.933355, "energy": 58.480131, "activity_lines": [ 179.350005, 177.453639, 166.005816, 159.776882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 159.4, "volume": 9398588, "typical_volume": 2904895.3, "trend": 154.578597, "fair_value": 188.553423, "relative_strength": -5.6224, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.540177, "energy": 31.993292, "activity_lines": [ 172.24667, 174.847275, 166.34532, 160.077368 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 164.050003, "volume": 4199726, "typical_volume": 2832110.25, "trend": 154.594259, "fair_value": 188.498993, "relative_strength": -5.258435, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.678125, "energy": 25.547569, "activity_lines": [ 168.180003, 172.997275, 167.017878, 160.688427 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }