{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcf0a6b3-dba3-4ea3-9961-bd42a8cbb410", "symbol": "DNUT", "name": "Krispy Kreme Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.338, "architecture_energy": 36.547, "architecture_maturity": 4.303, "architecture_confidence": 72.599, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.62, "rotation_up": 17.24, "upward_expansion": 21.62, "deceleration": 51.35, "rotation_down": 59.91, "downward_expansion": 51.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.260667, 3.376182, 3.464095, 3.462258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.34, "trend_reference": 3.439, "distance_from_trend": -0.028787, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.78899, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.57119, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.056505, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056962, "excess_performance": -0.130492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028787, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064642, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.57119, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015123, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190565, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043988, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056962, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682571, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20382102, "relative_activity": 1.675172, "balance": 0.682571, "dry_up": 1.143259, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125537, "annualized_volatility": 0.614228, "from_high_reference": -0.34638, "from_low_reference": 0.159722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.439, "fair_value_reference": 7.78899, "structural_low": 2.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033527, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.059535, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.110759, "worst_return": -0.031339, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001056, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.072635, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139241, "worst_return": -0.094555, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.023696, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.130492, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.056962, "worst_return": -0.031099, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.348686, "energy": 7.577675, "activity_lines": [ 3.562, 3.583273, 3.568857, 3.53443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.3, "volume": 12851929, "typical_volume": 11694190.55, "trend": 3.538, "fair_value": 7.997847, "relative_strength": -18.380565, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.051995, "energy": 18.504692, "activity_lines": [ 3.433333, 3.536727, 3.545571, 3.516366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.15, "volume": 13149094, "typical_volume": 11798895.7, "trend": 3.500333, "fair_value": 7.920743, "relative_strength": -19.97198, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.577804, "energy": 31.297687, "activity_lines": [ 3.322, 3.468364, 3.510143, 3.491333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.18, "volume": 9257771, "typical_volume": 11700980.45, "trend": 3.470333, "fair_value": 7.848452, "relative_strength": -19.216157, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.265428, "energy": 38.360673, "activity_lines": [ 3.252667, 3.406909, 3.479286, 3.470667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.34, "volume": 20382102, "typical_volume": 12167166.5, "trend": 3.439, "fair_value": 7.78899, "relative_strength": -19.056505, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.338167, "energy": 36.546818, "activity_lines": [ 3.260667, 3.376182, 3.464095, 3.462258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }