{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcf0dee6-8dd3-4d5d-b414-140056717bed", "symbol": "ERD", "name": "EROAD Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.776, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.181, "architecture_energy": 12.529, "architecture_maturity": 30.455, "architecture_confidence": 42.729, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.79, "rotation_up": 18.09, "upward_expansion": 20.97, "deceleration": 65.11, "rotation_down": 44.33, "downward_expansion": 29.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.003, 1.015091, 1.013167, 0.995376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.005, "trend_reference": 1.0005, "distance_from_trend": 0.004498, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.147113, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.414281, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.051887, "excess_performance": -0.08016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004498, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095525, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.123888, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019776, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011666, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051887, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.258773, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 291002, "relative_activity": 0.862637, "balance": 1.258773, "dry_up": 0.704777, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050134, "annualized_volatility": 0.312144, "from_high_reference": -0.658163, "from_low_reference": 0.240741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.0005, "fair_value_reference": 1.147113, "structural_low": 0.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.019968, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.038916, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.195402, "worst_return": -0.103774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.032609, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026719, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.460674, "worst_return": -0.198113, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.357465, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.34701, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.413043, "worst_return": 0.301887, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.188808, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.124142, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.203704, "worst_return": 0.173913, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.228814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141304, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084906, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013423, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.466165, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186147, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.278846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.20202, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042857, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.156132, "volume": 495232, "typical_volume": 1878413.45, "trend": 0.760142, "fair_value": 2.81015, "relative_strength": 30.094537, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.172774, "energy": 18.391259, "activity_lines": [ 1.038, 1.037818, 1.005143, 1.000645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.98, "volume": 166559, "typical_volume": 325015.55, "trend": 1.022333, "fair_value": 1.150449, "relative_strength": -33.411869, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.076579, "energy": 5.804759, "activity_lines": [ 1.018, 1.028545, 1.006167, 0.997441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.01, "volume": 171826, "typical_volume": 326220.9, "trend": 1.0165, "fair_value": 1.149351, "relative_strength": -31.390164, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.636703, "energy": 8.082542, "activity_lines": [ 1.013333, 1.025455, 1.009619, 0.996645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.0, "volume": 321611, "typical_volume": 336054.8, "trend": 1.008167, "fair_value": 1.148189, "relative_strength": -31.132375, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.143067, "energy": 11.470573, "activity_lines": [ 1.006667, 1.019818, 1.011452, 0.995581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.005, "volume": 291002, "typical_volume": 337340.15, "trend": 1.0005, "fair_value": 1.147113, "relative_strength": -30.414281, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.180627, "energy": 12.528545, "activity_lines": [ 1.003, 1.015091, 1.013167, 0.995376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }