{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcf27dc0-6276-42a1-89aa-de02c5865e2f", "symbol": "42S", "name": "Astaka Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.824, "architecture_energy": 70.259, "architecture_maturity": 44.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.011, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.29, "rotation_up": 8.76, "upward_expansion": 13.93, "deceleration": 46.05, "rotation_down": 71.14, "downward_expansion": 82.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.030467, 0.033491, 0.035414, 0.038852 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.031, "trend_reference": 0.0421, "distance_from_trend": -0.263658, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.070705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.561559, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.189517, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.295455, "excess_performance": -0.45029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.263658, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084783, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.561559, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093937, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.431895, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136902, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.295455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.15679, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38100, "relative_activity": 1.402024, "balance": 0.15679, "dry_up": 1.270469, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104218, "annualized_volatility": 1.382908, "from_high_reference": -0.557143, "from_low_reference": 0.24 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0421, "fair_value_reference": 0.070705, "structural_low": 0.025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.076923, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.041063, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.627907, "worst_return": -0.127273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.087121, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.171034, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.051724, "worst_return": -0.127273, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.16954, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.320944, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.166667, "worst_return": -0.172414, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.310345, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.635774, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.310345, "worst_return": -0.310345, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.172414, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.104167, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.225, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.088, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 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0.04, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 20405.0, "trend": 0.043867, "fair_value": 0.072173, "relative_strength": -28.389026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.658088, "energy": 60.623713, "activity_lines": [ 0.039333, 0.037273, 0.039971, 0.042095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.04, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 20375.0, "trend": 0.043733, "fair_value": 0.071865, "relative_strength": -28.018384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.736424, "energy": 64.374089, "activity_lines": [ 0.04, 0.037818, 0.03961, 0.041845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.026, "volume": 100000, "typical_volume": 25375.0, "trend": 0.043133, "fair_value": 0.071468, "relative_strength": -53.070993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.502602, "energy": 82.413518, "activity_lines": [ 0.035333, 0.035818, 0.037929, 0.040701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.026, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 25275.0, "trend": 0.042533, "fair_value": 0.071071, "relative_strength": -52.545756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.083789, "energy": 95.875211, "activity_lines": [ 0.0316, 0.034073, 0.036329, 0.039596 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.031, "volume": 38100, "typical_volume": 27175.0, "trend": 0.0421, "fair_value": 0.070705, "relative_strength": -43.189517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.82373, "energy": 70.259206, "activity_lines": [ 0.030467, 0.033491, 0.035414, 0.038852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }