{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcf78854-edde-4cd6-8f86-8e803a249dcc", "symbol": "WEG", "name": "Windon Energy Group AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.829, "architecture_energy": 62.048, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.591, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.54, "rotation_up": 13.4, "upward_expansion": 12.59, "deceleration": 39.49, "rotation_down": 68.36, "downward_expansion": 88.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.505533, 0.5526, 0.61499, 0.66334 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.482, "trend_reference": 0.759467, "distance_from_trend": -0.365344, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.574705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.812794, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -63.126828, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.47033, "excess_performance": -0.531824, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.365344, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276239, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.812794, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068025, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.631268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08083, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.47033, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.412018, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145105, "relative_activity": 0.340347, "balance": 0.412018, "dry_up": 0.647978, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.311044, "annualized_volatility": 0.829097, "from_high_reference": -0.8072, "from_low_reference": 0.158654 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.759467, "fair_value_reference": 2.574705, "structural_low": 0.416, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.080543, "regime_survival": 0.96, "best_return": 0.226054, "worst_return": -0.424051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.171332, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.217212, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.146953, "worst_return": -0.565421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.40783, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.443505, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.8625, "worst_return": -0.573171, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.350935, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.438301, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.04375, "worst_return": -0.65812, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031884, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054608, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.668803, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.220183, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.706098, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.5, "volume": 15074, "typical_volume": 64699.45, "trend": 5.39, "fair_value": 4.663253, "relative_strength": 35.782339, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.276269, "energy": 34.493398, "activity_lines": [ 6.718667, 6.718182, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.505, "volume": 519025, "typical_volume": 411166.1, "trend": 0.816833, "fair_value": 2.656026, "relative_strength": -62.269945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.542086, "energy": 40.386721, "activity_lines": [ 0.581667, 0.609455, 0.652524, 0.70714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.452, "volume": 355142, "typical_volume": 428438.25, "trend": 0.796067, "fair_value": 2.616487, "relative_strength": -65.67066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.846242, "energy": 53.659353, "activity_lines": [ 0.534, 0.575727, 0.63131, 0.683602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.482, "volume": 145105, "typical_volume": 426344.1, "trend": 0.759467, "fair_value": 2.574705, "relative_strength": -63.126828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.829089, "energy": 62.048319, "activity_lines": [ 0.505533, 0.5526, 0.61499, 0.66334 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }