{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcf7bc37-038d-4105-87d3-47e3ae8bc06b", "symbol": "CEEB5", "name": "Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia - COELBA", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.094, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -40.219, "architecture_energy": 58.878, "architecture_maturity": 35.529, "architecture_confidence": 81.84, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.82, "rotation_up": 14.0, "upward_expansion": 50.5, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 60.83, "downward_expansion": 42.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.039999, 41.722201, 42.228617, 41.838685 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.0, "trend_reference": 40.779167, "distance_from_trend": -0.019107, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.465175, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160592, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.05109, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.095488, "excess_performance": 0.152536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019107, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040177, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160592, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128548, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010511, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003508, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095488, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.454545, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007865, "annualized_volatility": 0.193063, "from_high_reference": -0.088961, "from_low_reference": 0.312582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.779167, "fair_value_reference": 34.465175, "structural_low": 36.513412, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of 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"red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046322, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116047, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050527, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027027, "active": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.73963, "energy": 82.578372, "activity_lines": [ 42.674741, 42.714724, 42.525829, 41.500832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.599998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 90.0, "trend": 40.374571, "fair_value": 34.389153, "relative_strength": 4.016082, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.08662, "energy": 83.424055, "activity_lines": [ 42.664703, 42.679231, 42.61481, 41.652108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.599998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 70.0, "trend": 40.52644, "fair_value": 34.459532, "relative_strength": 6.525738, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.024528, "energy": 80.168834, "activity_lines": [ 42.6489, 42.650972, 42.674808, 41.795684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.599998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 70.0, "trend": 40.678308, "fair_value": 34.498797, "relative_strength": 6.350241, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.720813, "energy": 79.440704, "activity_lines": [ 42.627331, 42.631745, 42.710521, 41.929462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 75.0, "trend": 40.728738, "fair_value": 34.481986, "relative_strength": -2.156771, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -32.355687, "energy": 51.673271, "activity_lines": [ 41.733332, 42.148821, 42.474331, 41.885701 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 55.0, "trend": 40.779167, "fair_value": 34.465175, "relative_strength": 1.05109, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -40.219178, "energy": 58.87836, "activity_lines": [ 41.039999, 41.722201, 42.228617, 41.838685 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }