{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fcfe9921-4858-4f10-bae1-88bc32427292", "symbol": "NJNK", "name": "COLUMBIA U.S. HIGH YIELD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.01, "architecture_energy": 18.881, "architecture_maturity": 15.127, "architecture_confidence": 77.95, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.34, "rotation_up": 28.73, "upward_expansion": 53.3, "deceleration": 87.47, "rotation_down": 27.37, "downward_expansion": 19.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.926101, 19.937831, 19.925005, 19.884301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 20.02, "trend_reference": 19.848145, "distance_from_trend": 0.008659, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.070509, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049788, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.524234, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009103, "excess_performance": -0.116521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008659, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005293, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049788, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 7.6e-05, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003403, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009103, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.854325, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9185, "relative_activity": 0.218088, "balance": 1.854325, "dry_up": 0.227722, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007427, "annualized_volatility": 0.040581, "from_high_reference": -0.004783, "from_low_reference": 0.046749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.848145, "fair_value_reference": 19.070509, "structural_low": 19.372949, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.415878, "energy": 13.140421, "activity_lines": [ 19.905975, 19.934193, 19.906196, 19.869775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.882455, "volume": 9909, "typical_volume": 41949.65, "trend": 19.840445, "fair_value": 19.061014, "relative_strength": -7.268453, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.824093, "energy": 16.819678, "activity_lines": [ 19.889094, 19.923658, 19.90976, 19.872717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.02, "volume": 9185, "typical_volume": 42116.1, "trend": 19.848145, "fair_value": 19.070509, "relative_strength": -9.524234, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.010263, "energy": 18.881428, "activity_lines": [ 19.926101, 19.937831, 19.925005, 19.884301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }