{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd06cdf8-9e35-4295-aa34-15dcb91877bd", "symbol": "UB69", "name": "UBS MSCI EMU Small Cap UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.61, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.669, "architecture_energy": 28.395, "architecture_maturity": 38.069, "architecture_confidence": 83.873, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.32, "rotation_up": 37.33, "upward_expansion": 61.25, "deceleration": 85.92, "rotation_down": 29.8, "downward_expansion": 18.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 13345.133333, 13326.781818, 13333.77619, 13189.047312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13606.0, "trend_reference": 13036.7, "distance_from_trend": 0.043669, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11061.907421, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229987, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.694336, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057187, "excess_performance": 0.005952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043669, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031823, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229987, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001495, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006943, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028973, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057187, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.324525, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 188, "relative_activity": 0.153013, "balance": 1.324525, "dry_up": 0.635657, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020316, "annualized_volatility": 0.176582, "from_high_reference": -0.024938, "from_low_reference": 0.209979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13036.7, "fair_value_reference": 11061.907421, "structural_low": 11400.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.003476, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.002809, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.18174, "worst_return": -0.164827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009079, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019799, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.079068, "worst_return": -0.045391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012463, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.049414, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.127445, "worst_return": -0.01014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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13286.9, 13150.522581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13606.0, "volume": 188, "typical_volume": 1228.65, "trend": 13036.7, "fair_value": 11061.907421, "relative_strength": -0.694336, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.668912, "energy": 28.394679, "activity_lines": [ 13345.133333, 13326.781818, 13333.77619, 13189.047312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }