{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd0955f7-8c17-4364-a3fc-b589e5ea2d38", "symbol": "SMSF", "name": "Leverage Shares -1x Microsoft ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.079, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -88.251, "architecture_energy": 86.898, "architecture_maturity": 22.67, "architecture_confidence": 75.311, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.27, "rotation_up": 10.72, "upward_expansion": 20.54, "deceleration": 34.39, "rotation_down": 76.47, "downward_expansion": 86.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 418.3, 449.077273, 457.245238, 464.198387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 358.25, "trend_reference": 467.308333, "distance_from_trend": -0.233376, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 494.837731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.276025, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.703499, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.255971, "excess_performance": -0.307206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.233376, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040312, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.276025, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159612, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.255971, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.69378, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2021, "relative_activity": 4.03353, "balance": 0.69378, "dry_up": 1.029338, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080144, "annualized_volatility": 0.451283, "from_high_reference": -0.341452, "from_low_reference": 0.002098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 467.308333, "fair_value_reference": 494.837731, "structural_low": 357.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028022, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041808, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038904, "worst_return": -0.06594, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.149845, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.177535, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.133478, "worst_return": -0.166213, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.25356, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.339937, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.150954, "worst_return": -0.356166, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10785, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050681, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.093932, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.23052, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083692, "active": false }, { 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"close": 514.5, "volume": 197, "typical_volume": 437.1, "trend": 459.666667, "fair_value": 501.46193, "relative_strength": 11.890324, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.645976, "energy": 47.586485, "activity_lines": [ 490.516667, 472.840909, 474.30119, 470.876882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 483.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 429.7, "trend": 462.016667, "fair_value": 500.597346, "relative_strength": 3.477592, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.668318, "energy": 47.025872, "activity_lines": [ 493.483333, 476.554545, 474.821429, 472.430645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 488.0, "volume": 206, "typical_volume": 433.55, "trend": 464.508333, "fair_value": 499.961128, "relative_strength": 6.06637, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.192591, "energy": 56.997526, "activity_lines": [ 493.95, 480.463636, 475.710714, 474.106989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 475.75, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 422.95, "trend": 466.808333, "fair_value": 499.145423, "relative_strength": 2.317902, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.577878, "energy": 48.214316, "activity_lines": [ 487.633333, 481.5, 475.403571, 474.832258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 486.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 419.85, "trend": 469.65, "fair_value": 498.297667, "relative_strength": 3.111755, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.913899, "energy": 25.901237, "activity_lines": [ 485.35, 483.977273, 476.15, 476.086559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 396.25, "volume": 37, "typical_volume": 411.65, "trend": 469.116667, "fair_value": 496.785647, "relative_strength": -16.784631, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.042845, "energy": 33.411873, "activity_lines": [ 454.216667, 469.472727, 468.279762, 471.351075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 358.25, "volume": 2021, "typical_volume": 501.05, "trend": 467.308333, "fair_value": 494.837731, "relative_strength": -24.703499, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.25093, "energy": 86.898311, "activity_lines": [ 418.3, 449.077273, 457.245238, 464.198387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }