{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd0ad442-3c95-41fc-8beb-1b9f34479758", "symbol": "292190", "name": "Samsung KODEX KRX300 ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -12.278, "architecture_energy": 29.983, "architecture_maturity": 59.71, "architecture_confidence": 86.213, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.24, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 43.17, "deceleration": 87.57, "rotation_down": 53.87, "downward_expansion": 39.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 46102.383333, 50396.969105, 51856.531771, 49427.288659 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 43260.0, "trend_reference": 45624.426172, "distance_from_trend": -0.051824, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23013.427215, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.879772, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.887903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.260536, "excess_performance": 0.030708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051824, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241207, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.879772, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.74236, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028879, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033396, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.260536, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.68652, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 188380, "relative_activity": 1.404138, "balance": 0.68652, "dry_up": 1.55115, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155238, "annualized_volatility": 0.496921, "from_high_reference": -0.35375, "from_low_reference": 1.23331 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45624.426172, "fair_value_reference": 23013.427215, "structural_low": 34244.277611, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.01052, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.008513, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.302416, "worst_return": -0.043644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027164, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.01815, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.324762, "worst_return": -0.025904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.059834, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034631, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.127149, 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"close": 43260.0, "volume": 188380, "typical_volume": 134160.65, "trend": 45624.426172, "fair_value": 23013.427215, "relative_strength": 2.887903, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.277751, "energy": 29.983231, "activity_lines": [ 46102.383333, 50396.969105, 51856.531771, 49427.288659 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }