{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd0d4540-d374-465b-8cb7-645a5cf44929", "symbol": "YTCH", "name": "TECHO HOGAR SOCIMI Sociedad de Beneficio e Inter\u00e9s Com\u00fan, SA", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.331, "architecture_energy": 29.014, "architecture_maturity": 65.988, "architecture_confidence": 78.189, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.43, "rotation_up": 29.64, "upward_expansion": 49.02, "deceleration": 79.42, "rotation_down": 43.62, "downward_expansion": 36.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.114, 1.115091, 1.116095, 1.113613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.12, "trend_reference": 1.106333, "distance_from_trend": 0.012353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.062417, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0542, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.08534, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037037, "excess_performance": -0.087394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012353, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014674, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0542, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001363, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120853, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037037, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.42573, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4526, "relative_activity": 1.575988, "balance": 3.42573, "dry_up": 0.422463, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003434, "annualized_volatility": 0.050444, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.076923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.106333, "fair_value_reference": 1.062417, "structural_low": 1.06, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.004464, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.062742, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.008929, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008929, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-20", "close": 0.99804, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": 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1.10972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.12, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4056.7, "trend": 1.100667, "fair_value": 1.060308, "relative_strength": -10.425501, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.440681, "energy": 51.045115, "activity_lines": [ 1.118667, 1.118182, 1.117429, 1.111075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.11, "volume": 327, "typical_volume": 3524.5, "trend": 1.102, "fair_value": 1.060826, "relative_strength": -9.966612, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.523688, "energy": 35.078443, "activity_lines": [ 1.116, 1.116909, 1.117048, 1.111677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.11, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3294.35, "trend": 1.103333, "fair_value": 1.061333, "relative_strength": -11.187328, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.29568, "energy": 13.209901, "activity_lines": [ 1.114, 1.115636, 1.116476, 1.112194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.11, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2840.65, "trend": 1.104667, "fair_value": 1.06183, "relative_strength": -11.569612, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.394555, "energy": 24.08876, "activity_lines": [ 1.112, 1.114364, 1.11581, 1.112624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.12, "volume": 4526, "typical_volume": 2871.85, "trend": 1.106333, "fair_value": 1.062417, "relative_strength": -12.08534, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.33054, "energy": 29.014385, "activity_lines": [ 1.114, 1.115091, 1.116095, 1.113613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }