{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd0ea431-84f5-462f-a836-44c876cff85a", "symbol": "CCL", "name": "Carnival Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "BUE", "country": "AR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^MERV", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.579, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.932, "architecture_energy": 30.988, "architecture_maturity": 11.249, "architecture_confidence": 68.569, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.75, "rotation_up": 47.65, "upward_expansion": 75.18, "deceleration": 57.6, "rotation_down": 22.94, "downward_expansion": 8.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 14419.133659, 14355.852626, 14183.734032, 13954.801393 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13700.0, "trend_reference": 13917.252918, "distance_from_trend": -0.01561, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11048.158535, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240026, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.101204, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.109354, "excess_performance": -0.123253, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01561, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000628, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240026, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02024, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059349, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109354, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.907593, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3931, "relative_activity": 0.853962, "balance": 1.907593, "dry_up": 1.287134, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062836, "annualized_volatility": 0.43686, "from_high_reference": -0.178712, "from_low_reference": 0.187784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13917.252918, "fair_value_reference": 11048.158535, "structural_low": 11534.082327, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.005814, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.044051, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.025383, "worst_return": -0.013755, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.171342, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.255825, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169948, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137881, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": 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24.144033, "energy": 50.439901, "activity_lines": [ 14665.924358, 14210.463872, 13727.560638, 13840.699779 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13980.630859, "volume": 98, "typical_volume": 4178.3, "trend": 14120.183451, "fair_value": 10877.535421, "relative_strength": -20.805898, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.079634, "energy": 40.292289, "activity_lines": [ 14460.81644, 14241.472703, 13770.318857, 13831.956513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13791.569336, "volume": 31, "typical_volume": 4053.05, "trend": 14051.914897, "fair_value": 10902.656403, "relative_strength": -19.409766, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.718738, "energy": 6.646468, "activity_lines": [ 14179.312623, 14223.815093, 13801.744835, 13810.755602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13891.075195, "volume": 11108, "typical_volume": 4245.85, "trend": 14005.112813, "fair_value": 10928.198444, "relative_strength": -20.479156, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.253136, "energy": 11.499801, "activity_lines": [ 13979.53947, 14208.333352, 13849.842684, 13800.378847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14517.964844, "volume": 7234, "typical_volume": 4027.9, "trend": 13961.717436, "fair_value": 10958.620193, "relative_strength": -16.687027, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.067478, "energy": 11.715967, "activity_lines": [ 14107.991187, 14276.089715, 13951.818253, 13833.466075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15180.0, "volume": 7137, "typical_volume": 4315.25, "trend": 13929.17017, "fair_value": 10994.093973, "relative_strength": -6.919938, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.873864, "energy": 25.060916, "activity_lines": [ 14480.590299, 14436.434928, 14102.825216, 13912.06495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14830.0, "volume": 5398, "typical_volume": 4489.05, "trend": 13938.414962, "fair_value": 11026.059856, "relative_strength": -4.45312, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.09051, "energy": 51.880078, "activity_lines": [ 14666.507617, 14508.416504, 14204.273692, 13970.183004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 13700.0, "volume": 3931, "typical_volume": 4603.25, "trend": 13917.252918, "fair_value": 11048.158535, "relative_strength": -10.101204, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.931562, "energy": 30.98785, "activity_lines": [ 14419.133659, 14355.852626, 14183.734032, 13954.801393 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }