{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd11c4ae-7ef2-4782-ac73-5c324d353af3", "symbol": "ORICONENT", "name": "Oricon Enterprises Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.543, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.024, "architecture_energy": 47.173, "architecture_maturity": 34.286, "architecture_confidence": 87.887, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.86, "rotation_up": 21.67, "upward_expansion": 6.79, "deceleration": 57.28, "rotation_down": 57.7, "downward_expansion": 82.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.053333, 55.830727, 58.527047, 60.405613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 54.119999, "trend_reference": 62.351, "distance_from_trend": -0.132011, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.562957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.214462, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.873109, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166872, "excess_performance": -0.123163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132011, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012251, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.214462, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336928, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088731, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269141, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166872, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.946099, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66825, "relative_activity": 0.153376, "balance": 1.946099, "dry_up": 0.525216, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07941, "annualized_volatility": 0.290708, "from_high_reference": -0.259847, "from_low_reference": 0.108789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.351, "fair_value_reference": 44.562957, "structural_low": 52.110001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.036303, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.025658, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.286131, "worst_return": -0.211849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.078049, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.042295, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.304348, "worst_return": -0.263914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.08601, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046099, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.296824, "worst_return": -0.206463, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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62.767161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 55.049999, "volume": 193635, "typical_volume": 522235.65, "trend": 63.017333, "fair_value": 43.709442, "relative_strength": -4.863779, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.109774, "energy": 79.687608, "activity_lines": [ 56.103332, 58.167999, 61.033952, 62.244839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.950001, "volume": 491711, "typical_volume": 514728.05, "trend": 62.973667, "fair_value": 43.957837, "relative_strength": 2.502994, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.391138, "energy": 61.113251, "activity_lines": [ 57.212666, 58.165454, 60.745524, 62.046946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.029999, "volume": 150911, "typical_volume": 485154.95, "trend": 62.807, "fair_value": 44.170697, "relative_strength": -4.065016, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.426333, "energy": 49.148807, "activity_lines": [ 56.631333, 57.35109, 60.027, 61.534452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.790001, "volume": 205885, "typical_volume": 455748.2, "trend": 62.6, "fair_value": 44.366076, "relative_strength": -8.743219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.954704, "energy": 50.050814, "activity_lines": [ 55.729333, 56.491454, 59.232286, 60.95271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.119999, "volume": 66825, "typical_volume": 435693.0, "trend": 62.351, "fair_value": 44.562957, "relative_strength": -8.873109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.023946, "energy": 47.172516, "activity_lines": [ 55.053333, 55.830727, 58.527047, 60.405613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }