{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd15283b-6d45-4795-a866-6469eb1df6e5", "symbol": "601212", "name": "Baiyin Nonferrous Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.548, "architecture_energy": 59.013, "architecture_maturity": 75.641, "architecture_confidence": 92.016, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.09, "rotation_up": 28.03, "upward_expansion": 11.13, "deceleration": 60.79, "rotation_down": 52.46, "downward_expansion": 84.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.056667, 5.095273, 5.735762, 6.474495 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.63, "trend_reference": 7.398, "distance_from_trend": -0.238984, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.998655, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.407974, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.549061, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.588149, "excess_performance": -0.544945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.238984, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000631, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.407974, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.74383, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.435092, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.588149, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.751588, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 931744476, "relative_activity": 1.649529, "balance": 0.751588, "dry_up": 1.363927, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123378, "annualized_volatility": 0.684278, "from_high_reference": -0.629361, "from_low_reference": 0.792994 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.398, "fair_value_reference": 3.998655, "structural_low": 4.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.007722, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.002646, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.129278, "worst_return": -0.037175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.08077, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.013019, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.362869, "worst_return": -0.135037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041825, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.000892, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.178832, "worst_return": -0.010032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 4.62, "volume": 806971387, "typical_volume": 556414779.85, "trend": 7.434667, "fair_value": 3.966953, "relative_strength": -21.605288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.709347, "energy": 80.753518, "activity_lines": [ 4.746667, 5.127455, 5.983619, 6.746753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.99, "volume": 676777264, "typical_volume": 551944010.85, "trend": 7.405333, "fair_value": 3.980725, "relative_strength": -16.103585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.135894, "energy": 65.674513, "activity_lines": [ 4.793333, 5.038, 5.819524, 6.589032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.63, "volume": 931744476, "typical_volume": 564855000.9, "trend": 7.398, "fair_value": 3.998655, "relative_strength": -8.549061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.548006, "energy": 59.012689, "activity_lines": [ 5.056667, 5.095273, 5.735762, 6.474495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }