{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd1783aa-2496-4c87-a97e-3b616debb532", "symbol": "SINI", "name": "PT Singaraja Putra Tbk", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 53.585, "architecture_energy": 82.14, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.226, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.7, "rotation_up": 81.72, "upward_expansion": 63.13, "deceleration": 15.86, "rotation_down": 14.0, "downward_expansion": 33.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 15801.666667, 12943.636364, 10824.073382, 10846.975103 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18300.0, "trend_reference": 11006.376709, "distance_from_trend": 0.662673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5212.348085, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.510894, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 94.350973, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.577586, "excess_performance": 0.698082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.662673, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119411, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.510894, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.426818, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.94351, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.655792, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.577586, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.625037, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32245000, "relative_activity": 1.769551, "balance": 4.625037, "dry_up": 3.881413, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124916, "annualized_volatility": 1.474134, "from_high_reference": -0.046875, "from_low_reference": 3.692308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11006.376709, "fair_value_reference": 5212.348085, "structural_low": 5500.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.085154, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.083678, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.263636, "worst_return": -0.113895, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.739568, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.67722, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.659091, "worst_return": -0.179954, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 2.979861, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 2.893119, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 4.681818, "worst_return": 1.277904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069959, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.554622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.298405, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083799, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.593045, "energy": 30.555275, "activity_lines": [ 8236.666667, 7785.592773, 8583.431501, 9591.792748 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 14500.0, "volume": 139425700, "typical_volume": 11865820.0, "trend": 10887.210042, "fair_value": 4929.014752, "relative_strength": 57.074581, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 23.40321, "energy": 31.918315, "activity_lines": [ 10438.333333, 9031.205478, 9016.806257, 9828.908229 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 13100.0, "volume": 49444700, "typical_volume": 14001210.0, "trend": 10776.376709, "fair_value": 5003.918598, "relative_strength": 41.01089, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.245541, "energy": 46.786006, "activity_lines": [ 11703.333333, 9929.090909, 9334.704822, 9971.668872 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 16900.0, "volume": 61795100, "typical_volume": 16819840.0, "trend": 10856.376709, "fair_value": 5103.405777, "relative_strength": 79.538199, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.784508, "energy": 68.508864, "activity_lines": [ 13848.333333, 11390.909091, 10022.00815, 10366.741342 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 18300.0, "volume": 32245000, "typical_volume": 18222135.0, "trend": 11006.376709, "fair_value": 5212.348085, "relative_strength": 94.350973, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.585298, "energy": 82.139618, "activity_lines": [ 15801.666667, 12943.636364, 10824.073382, 10846.975103 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }