{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd191887-4ed1-4e2b-bc7f-eeab91e207fc", "symbol": "FGH", "name": "Foresta Group Holding Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.941, "architecture_energy": 73.125, "architecture_maturity": 70.846, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 27.8, "upward_expansion": 13.59, "deceleration": 46.56, "rotation_down": 62.28, "downward_expansion": 89.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.010133, 0.010836, 0.012862, 0.015314 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.009, "trend_reference": 0.019433, "distance_from_trend": -0.536878, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.014619, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.384346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -63.342827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.678571, "excess_performance": -0.742277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.536878, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29759, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.384346, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.658362, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.633428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.479854, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.678571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.287277, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1930073, "relative_activity": 1.598303, "balance": 0.287277, "dry_up": 1.086646, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.226496, "annualized_volatility": 0.878289, "from_high_reference": -0.816327, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.019433, "fair_value_reference": 0.014619, "structural_low": 0.008, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.018293, "positive_rate": 0.321429, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019126, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.708861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.184524, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.244355, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.75, "worst_return": -0.64557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.221457, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 3.75, "worst_return": -0.658537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 0.011733, 0.012691, 0.015362, 0.018286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.011, "volume": 578513, "typical_volume": 1228290.95, "trend": 0.022233, "fair_value": 0.014734, "relative_strength": -52.855099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.910549, "energy": 74.603101, "activity_lines": [ 0.011333, 0.012218, 0.014714, 0.017503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.011, "volume": 1908942, "typical_volume": 1204254.25, "trend": 0.021333, "fair_value": 0.014702, "relative_strength": -52.758261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.715178, "energy": 66.466706, "activity_lines": [ 0.011133, 0.011891, 0.014124, 0.016778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01, "volume": 831304, "typical_volume": 1193015.1, "trend": 0.020367, "fair_value": 0.01467, "relative_strength": -57.983871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.984541, "energy": 67.381886, "activity_lines": [ 0.010733, 0.011418, 0.013505, 0.016047 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.009, "volume": 1930073, "typical_volume": 1207576.3, "trend": 0.019433, "fair_value": 0.014619, "relative_strength": -63.342827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.941141, "energy": 73.124754, "activity_lines": [ 0.010133, 0.010836, 0.012862, 0.015314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }