{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd1c39cd-4b1c-4804-8e8d-6dffa650c3ab", "symbol": "JSMD", "name": "JANUS HENDERSON SMALL/MID CAP GROWTH ALPHA ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.637, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.136, "architecture_energy": 23.647, "architecture_maturity": 58.253, "architecture_confidence": 78.787, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.22, "rotation_up": 28.98, "upward_expansion": 58.38, "deceleration": 88.04, "rotation_down": 27.26, "downward_expansion": 19.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.0964, 95.822908, 94.647252, 92.091862 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 96.7265, "trend_reference": 89.364183, "distance_from_trend": 0.082386, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 74.578044, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296984, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.079933, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.119701, "excess_performance": -0.067753, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082386, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051846, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296984, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007371, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020799, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040518, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119701, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.719624, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 303558, "relative_activity": 0.774267, "balance": 0.719624, "dry_up": 0.874114, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044658, "annualized_volatility": 0.19437, "from_high_reference": -0.048904, "from_low_reference": 0.285756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 89.364183, "fair_value_reference": 74.578044, "structural_low": 75.229273, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012382, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023278, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.057878, "worst_return": -0.070096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.024379, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.008158, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13986, "worst_return": -0.153506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.082106, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.040864, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.133975, "worst_return": 0.048299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"energy": 49.328606, "activity_lines": [ 96.962363, 96.453829, 93.449827, 90.929542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 94.561, "volume": 289870, "typical_volume": 414304.5, "trend": 88.638315, "fair_value": 74.149875, "relative_strength": 1.025359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.112864, "energy": 37.145984, "activity_lines": [ 96.050977, 96.260139, 93.911704, 91.334613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.63, "volume": 311944, "typical_volume": 404811.4, "trend": 88.980828, "fair_value": 74.345496, "relative_strength": -1.494199, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.419475, "energy": 24.628507, "activity_lines": [ 94.72216, 95.664717, 94.119566, 91.592141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.7265, "volume": 303558, "typical_volume": 392058.65, "trend": 89.364183, "fair_value": 74.578044, "relative_strength": -2.079933, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.136295, "energy": 23.647376, "activity_lines": [ 95.0964, 95.822908, 94.647252, 92.091862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }