{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd1d4c37-98f9-4cd2-af12-0a38ebb72c73", "symbol": "SYNP", "name": "Synopsys, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.995, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.305, "architecture_energy": 78.927, "architecture_maturity": 11.434, "architecture_confidence": 75.459, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.26, "rotation_up": 8.18, "upward_expansion": 17.92, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 79.13, "downward_expansion": 93.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 343.5, 358.309091, 379.406905, 380.378387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 357.5, "trend_reference": 383.555001, "distance_from_trend": -0.06793, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 450.437821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.206328, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.983706, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0007, "excess_performance": -0.173547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06793, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008748, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.206328, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16788, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269837, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146034, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0007, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.620865, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 216, "relative_activity": 2.389381, "balance": 2.620865, "dry_up": 2.436394, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069607, "annualized_volatility": 0.475669, "from_high_reference": -0.332524, "from_low_reference": 0.118936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 383.555001, "fair_value_reference": 450.437821, "structural_low": 319.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.047568, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.025515, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.193248, "worst_return": -0.20567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.100685, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.116811, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.159026, "worst_return": 0.076381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.137082, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.023884, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.332899, "worst_return": -0.053971, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065161, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027651, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118169, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028958, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192919, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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389.043334, "fair_value": 451.123078, "relative_strength": -32.585458, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.544799, "energy": 79.58524, "activity_lines": [ 352.3, 372.209091, 387.087143, 385.937957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 332.0, "volume": 251, "typical_volume": 81.15, "trend": 386.630001, "fair_value": 450.662821, "relative_strength": -31.209494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.13771, "energy": 84.262967, "activity_lines": [ 341.6, 361.8, 381.961667, 382.257742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 357.5, "volume": 216, "typical_volume": 90.4, "trend": 383.555001, "fair_value": 450.437821, "relative_strength": -26.983706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.305421, "energy": 78.92653, "activity_lines": [ 343.5, 358.309091, 379.406905, 380.378387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }